Category: Other

Read My Latest at Linked-In: “Predicting Independent Film Sales in 2020 and Beyond”

Sometimes, it turns out you can’t predict the future.

Which doesn’t stop us from trying, all the time, whether we realize it or not.

That’s basically the theme of my latest article at Linked-In. It shows how small sample sizes and a lack of data make some efforts at predictions essentially impossible. (I’ve been trying to build my profile over there as well, so consider a follow/connection on Linked-In if you use it as your default social media source.)

Specifically, I looked at film festivals, using Sundance sales from past years as stand-in for all festivals. This is also a great example of how people are predicting things—how likely it is they can sell their film—without realizing it—at best folks predict if the market will be weak or strong, rarely with any numbers to it.

Take a read. Even if you’re not a fan of independent film, you can learn more about…

— A brief history of the rise of prestige/independent films.

— How the streaming wars have boosted prices in independent film.

— A history of Sundance sales looks over the last five years…in numbers. 

So check it out!

Read My Latest at Athletic Director U and My Database for Sports Media Rights Deals

Today, I published a guest article for Athletic Director U looking at the value of sports media rights deals across professional, amateur and college athletics have grown over time. Take a read!

Moreover, for the first time, I’m sharing my work. I had so many links that I couldn’t fit them in the article. Plus, I thought this may be a nice tool for ADs and their ilk to use. Here is the link to the Excel document with my references for sports media rights over time:

ADU Media Rights

Read My Latest at Decider: Netflix Is Five Guys and Hulu Is McDonald’s: How Hamburgers Can Help Explain The Streaming Wars

In case you missed it, my latest is up over at Decider. The title may sound a little silly, but I’ve been mulling on how all the streaming services are trading off price, quality and quantity as the streaming wars get kicked off in earnest this fall. And I loaded it with information on price, number of shows and other good tidbits.

It also features probably my favorite table I’ve made this month…

image-5-price-per-1000-episodes

Introducing the Entertainment Strategy Guy Newsletter

Wait, do you REALLY need another newsletter. Probably not. Peak newsletter baby!

Let me defend why you should add just one more email to your already considerable deluge. Then I’ll give you the details.

In My Defense – Why You Need Another Newsletter

Here’s my guess as to how 95% of my readers start their work day. They come into the office, go to their desk, and turn on their computer. Then they open their email program of choice.

Then they read and answer emails. All damn day.

Am I wrong? Maybe. I’d love to imagine a small sub-segment who says, “Nope, I review my to do list, then complete my most important work task before turning on email.” But that’s not happening. If I’m wrong, it’s more likely that a lot of people woke up and the first thing they did was open their phone to see if they had any emails from work to read. (Then, Twitter.) 

That’s why newsletters have taken off among a certain psychographic set. They deliver news via the (dark) social media platform of necessity and convenience. This is especially true with the professionals—across entertainment, media, tech, academia—that I consider my core target audience.

Without a newsletter, I have to rely on folks 1. Stumbling across articles in their never-ending Twitter or Linked-In scroll, or 2. Remembering that good website they read once and hopefully bookmarked. (Do people even still bookmark websites?)

Even if you remember to return back to my website regularly, did you know I published at Decider or Linked-In or The Ankler? Probably not. Instead, let’s just be sure you can find all my stuff every week. And a very short newsletter is the best way to deliver on that promise. I’ve also heard from a few readers who want this service.

The Newsletter – What It Is

Here are the details on the newsletter:

Distribution – Substack

I looked at a few options and liked their combination of features, volume and pricing the best. 

Content

The newsletter will have links to all my writing of the last week. This is across all the outlets I’m writing for, including my website, guest articles, Linked-In articles and really good Twitter Threads. 

Plus, it will have the “media” related recommendations from my weekly column. So my “long read of the week”, “listen of the week” and “newsletter of the week” will end up here. This should hopefully make my weekly column a bit shorter.

As a result, the “Most Important Story of the Week and Other Good Reads” will drop the “good reads” portion to focus on news and opinions including, “Most Important Story of the Week”, “Other Candidates”, “Data of the Week”, “Entertainment Strategy Guy Updates” and “Lots of News with No News”. 

Timing?

Once per week, weekly. No more. It will go out Monday in the AM covering the previous week’s stories. 

Price

Free. 

Is this locked in stone?

No. I wish I could say that my newsletter will be free for always. I debated making that bold claim.

But I need to make a living writing. With my guest articles for certain outlets, I’m getting there and I hope to add advertising in the future (FYC related), but if my weekly column is getting enough traction, I can’t rule out monetizing it. In the near future, though, this is the plan.

How do I subscribe?

Go here, and sign up. Hit me up if you run into any trouble. There is currently one sample draft from this week to review. I plan to keep about 4 to five emails up in the archives at Substack.

How do I help out?

Tell your friends. When the newsletter comes out, since it is free, forward it to everyone you think will find it interesting. Reply to a company wide email chain with the link and say, “Hey you should all read this.” (Kidding. Don’t do that. And never reply “Unsubscribe” to an email chain.)

I do appreciate everyone who has spread the word so far and will keep doing so.

Read My Latest at Decider: “‘The Boys’ Is a Hit for Amazon, But What Does That Mean?”

Last week, I threw up a quick Twitter thread on The Boys and I just turned it into a full article for Decider.  (And it’s short for me, about 800 words.)

So take a read and share on social media! Appreciate it in advance.

Of course, trying to judge if a series is performing well or poorly is NOT simple. And as I found some new data sources, I had thoughts that got cut from the final article. (As always.) So here’s the rest of the story, including a broadcast comparison, how I think about managing messy data sets and the rest of Amazon Studios datecdotes.

Introduction – A BH90210 Comparison

Initially, I was going to compare The Boys to BH90210, the Beverly Hills, 90210 revival that was off to a good start last week. Here’s the Variety quote on its success:

Image 1 - Variety TV Rating

That’s good! Or is it bad? I mean, is 3.8 million people watching good? Honestly, with broadcast we don’t know since a show like Night Court used to get 20 million viewers in the 1980s, and The Big Bang Theory—the biggest show on broadcast in 2019—didn’t even get that for its finale. (Fine, it did with DVR viewing.) No seriously, here are the ratings for Night Court:

Image 2 - Night Court Ratings

So which was bigger, BH90210 or The Boys? To the Google Trends. Now, here’s the first look and you can say, “Well The Boys won”…

Image 3 - The Boys initial

But I told you Google Trends was finicky, didn’t I? The problem with a show like BH90210 is the title is super generic and derivative off another series. So here’s with a few other variations on that title.

Image 4 - GTrends Updated

Add them all up, and BH9210 was more in the consciousness than The Boys. Whether that translates to more viewers, I can’t say. But it provides some “broadcast to streaming” context.

Comment on Amazon Datecdotes

One of my favorite parts about writing and researching this article was it forced me to look up all of Amazon’s “datecdotes“. Which I’d been meaning to do since their last earnings report, where they again touted Emmy success while steadfastly avoiding numbers a la Netflix.

Now, why wouldn’t Amazon tell us good news? Well, the pro-Amazon case is they have all sorts of good news but are hoarding it for some advantage. That’s frankly BS. My rule of thumb with all large organizations—from the government to any corporation—is they share good news and hide/bury the bad.

The most basic assumption is that Amazon’s overall numbers are much, much smaller than Netflix, so they avoid specifics. Because if they did, they would look bad. That’s simple logic.

Anyways, here’s my Amazon datecdotes table, a la Netflix. Notably, I left out two other sets of numbers for space in my Decider piece. First, the Reuters leak from last year had aadditional details for Transparent and Good Girls Revolt. Second, last fall Amazon touted it’s NFL viewership numbers for Thursday Night Football:

Image 5 - AMZN Datecdotes

Some quick notes. For The Man In the High Castle, for example, we still don’t really know what 8 million viewers means. Is that over the lifetime, up to the point in time Reuters got the leak? Or some shorter time period? With data, that distinction is really important. 

Or take The Tick as a top five series for Amazon in 2017. That would worry me, given that as the IMDb data shows that series wasn’t even that popular. And it was in their top five? And now it and Sneaky Pete are off your platform? That would make make me think the other series are much much smaller than we imagine. (Sneaky Pete was also a Sony co-production. So the co-pro curse strikes again.)

Google Trends – The Boys Pessimistic Case

Read More

Read My Latest at Decider: “To Binge or Not to Binge: Who Won the Battle Between Game of Thrones and Stranger Things”?

I just had a guest article published at Decider, this time asking, “Should Netflix keep binge releasing all its series?” My conclusion: not all of them. Essentially, Netflix is leaving “awareness” on the table.

Take a read and share on social media. Also, shout out to Alan Wolk, who tackled this back in the spring with Game of Thrones. I’d been toying with this idea when I read his take, and tried to update his thesis with the Stranger Things data point.

Like all long articles I write, I had two ideas that didn’t fit in the main piece. Here they are.

Has Hulu’s Weekly Release Helped?

It’s tough to say. Here’s the brutal case against it:

Image 8 - G Trends with Handmaids

Frankly, The Handmaid’s Tale is their most popular series and it is clearly the lightweight to the Game of Thrones/Stranger Things heavyweights. So let’s drop those two, and throw it up against some similar competition.

Chart 7 - Google Trends TV.png

That’s better, and you can see the same weekly interest boost that Big Little Lies and Game of Thrones had, just on a different scale. Instead, I still think that Hulu is just much, much smaller than Netflix right now. (Which, yes, isn’t breaking news.) Or about where HBO is, given that the interest almost matches something like Big Little Lies.

The counter to the binge model, though, could also be this chart. If The Handmaid’s Tale had dropped on one weekend, would Hulu even have a chance to keep it in the conversation? I don’t think so. In this case, Hulu made the right decision. This naturally leads us to ask about not just the current streamers, but the future streamers.

What Should the DAWN (Disney, Apple, Warner and NBC) Streamers Do?

Well, it depends on who you are and what your business model is, but overall, I’d be flexible. If you have a show with tons of pent up demand—like the upcoming Lord of the Rings on Amazon—consider weekly releases for the first season. Ride the potential enthusiasm to help launch weeks worth of content.

For the rest, I’d consider what type of content you have. Disney has a lot of shows that will benefit from weekly releases. Star Wars or Marvel TV series are guaranteed to drive conversation on comics and sci-f (fanboy) websites and podcasts. Weekly releases will amplify their reach from season one. For other dramas? Maybe not.

For HBO Max, they know all about launching prestige television, but HBO is about to quickly run out of days to launch all their content. In that sense, having more binge releases may make sense. Though again many of their fantasy or superhero series are destined to be stars in recap culture. For NBC, I still know so little about their platform that I won’t even speculate.

Apple may benefit the most from the binge release model. They are buying a ton of content and needs lots of buzz right from launch. Moreover, they aren’t trying to build a streaming platform per se, but a TV platform of which the content serves a subsidiary purpose. They should probably consider an approach closer to launching all series on binge, then rolling out the hits weekly for season twos.

Fine, What About Netflix?

If I were Netflix, I think they are missing something essential about how the social conversation drives a show to new heights. Right now, they have one potential mega-hit in Stranger Things. Even if they want to keep binge releases for all ten thousand other releases, they should consider carving exceptions for their biggest hits. A Stranger Things weekly release likely would have brought in new customer which they, um, need nowadays.

The key boils down to flexibility and being innovative. Innovation is not saying “Never, never, never.” It’s about understanding your customers, your business models and the attention landscape to maximize your return on assets.

Read My Latest at Athletic Director U – Where should the NCAA look for growth?

When Athletic Director U asked me, “What do you think of college baseball?” I’ll be honest, I didn’t have an angle. Sure, it could grow, but how much? And compared to what? Then, I read an article about eSports. Apparently the NCAA–technically a consultancy hired by the NCAA–was exploring whether to bring eSports under the NCAA fold. I thought, “Huh, baseball or eSports?”

That’s a fun challenge, thinking about growth and deciding between opportunities how to think about growth. So in true “Entertainment Strategy Guy idea spiral fashion”, I didn’t just write an article about college baseball, but developed the idea to write a series on how the NCAA could look at generating revenue. The goal is to explain my approach to looking at new businesses and to explain some business frameworks along the way.

Over the next few months, I’ll look at college baseball, international growth, eSports, women’s basketball (and other rising sports) and maybe a few more topics. But before I do that, I needed to explain my approach. It’s a framework that isn’t unusual for my regular readers—see my Game of Thrones articles here—but I wanted to explain it again.

Check it out over at Athletic Director U, “Where Should the NCAA Look for Growth?”

And if you’re new to my site, follow me on Twitter, Linked-In or subscribe on WordPress for regular updates. My goal is to explain the business of entertainment, using fun examples like Star Wars or college sports. If you’d like to reach out, my contact information is on a page up top.