Category: Other

Read My Latest Guest Articles at Whats On Netflix and Decider

In lieu of a big article this week—I was a pinch busy on some other projects and I’m also digging through a lot of viewership data from Nielsen—I wanted to shout out two guest articles that I never linked to on this website.

– First, I wrote about Netflix’s viewership over the summer at What’s On Netflix. I also continue to think Netflix is leaving “awareness” on the table by not releasing one series per quarter as a weekly series.

– Second, I wrote my extended thoughts on Quibi’s demise in this obituary for Decider. As always, the key art is tremendous at Decider.

Read My Latest “Why Did Netflix Cancel ‘Away’? (Hint: The Company’s Going Through A Midlife Crisis)”

It’s fairly clear Netflix is cancelling more shows sooner than they have in year’s past. The latest victim is the space epic Away. This move is more than a streamer cancelling an expensive show that underperformed, it shows that Netflix is embracing (some) cost discipline as it enters its third decade.

Read about that at Decider. This one is short, but it packs in a lot of biz thoughts.

Read My Latest at Decider “AMC Theaters and Comcast Declared a Truce: What does it Mean and What Comes Next?”

Well, I promised you takes on AMC Theaters and Comcast’s big new deal to launch feature films on “Premium Video on Demand” 17 days after release, and it’s finally up at Decider. What does that mean for theaters? Studios? And Streamer?

I explain in my latest along with some explanation for why this deal got completed.

Read My Latest at Decider “‘Hamilton’ vs. ‘The Old Guard’ vs. ‘Greyhound’ vs. ‘Palm Springs’: Which Movie Was Straight-To-Streaming Champion of July?”

July was a big month for straight-to-streaming films. With theaters still shut down in the United States (and in large parts of the world) streaming is where the action is.

A couple of weeks back, I started dabbling with Google Trends to look at the big streaming movies in July for my weekly column. One thing led to another…and I ended up writing nearly 2,000 words on it.

I pitched it to Decider and they just published it. So if you want to know:

– What was the most popular film globally in July on streaming…
– Or how well Hulu and Apple TV+ stacked up against Netflix…
– Or how well Netflix’s action films are doing…
– And who–if anyone–is making money on these films?

Then check out my latest. I give winners and losers and talk about what we can divine of the economics in this one.

And the winners—specifically how much they won by—may shock you.

Cut for Room Thought: Since Tenet is Delayed

…should Warner Bros put it straight to HBO Max?

Hmmm. 

That’s essentially the question I’ve been asking in my long series, “Should your film go straight to Netflix?”. We’re in very different times than 2019, where I would have said no way. 80% of me still says, “No way.” (And it sounds like Warner Media agrees, based on their earnings call.) Potentially grossing a billion dollars at the box office is worth the risks. And then the film will be on HBO/HBO Max anyways.

That said…

…HBO Max needs something. They’re losing the Harry Potter films in August! The new Game of Thrones series is delayed for who knows how long. Is it worth taking a hit on Tenet to drive new subscribers to HBO Max in the US? 20% of me could see that argument. 

Read My Latest “5 Insights from Netflix’s Viewing Data for its Original Movies” at Whats-On-Netflix

If you’re up for some more Netflix data, I got you covered over at Whats-On-Netflix.com. I essentially wrote up this long Twitter thread

…into a full-blown article for them. I added a section as well on genre films to show how dominate action films have been. Check it out.

https://twitter.com/EntStrategyGuy/status/1285304347740352512 

Read My Latest at The Ankler (Paywall): Are Superhero Movies Doomed?

If you don’t follow me on social or subscribe to my newsletter, you may have missed my latest guest article at The Ankler (behind a paywall). It’s a short one, but a goody. 

In it I compared Netflix’s recent Hard R action films, and their “datecdotes”, to Netflix’s other big swings, like Bird Box and The Irishman. It’s behind The Ankler’s paywall, but worth it to find out about my provocative title. Not to step on the toes, but I don’t see how $15 a month streaming will ever make $200 million production budget feature films profitable. And this has ramifications for superhero, sci-fi and even animated films. Even if you don’t buy that thesis, it has a good comparison of all their films recent performance.

Check it out!

Read My Latest at Decider – Why Is Comcast Declaring War on Movie Theaters?

I finally cracked why Comcast is doing all the things it does. I explain it over at Decider, but quickly:

  • They can’t buy any more cable companies, so they money needs to go somewhere.
  • If you become a tech company, you can get a higher valuation. 
  • Also, Brian Roberts loves buying things.

So how does this relate to fighting theaters? Because tech titans hate the whole idea of “windowing” and sharing profits with others. Comcast is just the latest to get in the game.

So head to Decider and check it out.

Read My Latest at Decider “Is Anyone Watching Apple TV+?”

My latest article is up at Decider. The simple answer to the headline is, “No, not really.”

I had mentioned in my weekly column a few weeks back hearing rumors that, well, no one was watching Apple TV+. This article allowed me to dive a bit deeper into the subject then that article, plus talk about the largely disappointing debut of Amazing Stories.

Which is a point I’ll digress on a bit before moving on. If you recall back to the time period of last April, when Apple announced Apple TV+, Stephen Spielberg was a BIG part of that announcement. Like central. The thinking being “They got Spielberg. That’s huge!” But it was just another show he executive produced, like so many other flops in TV, and now it came and went. I’d say the same for Oprah. Another huge get, but is anyone tuning in to her book club?

Read the whole article for the details. 

 

Read My Latest at Decider – Should Netflix Become A Content “Arms Dealer”?

In the olden days, the real value in a TV show was the long tail selling to syndication. A network, say NBC, would pay for the first run, but then constant reruns would make the true owner, say Warner Bros, all the profit. When streaming came, say Netflix, that was another source of cash.

The question, of course, is what about Netflix? Could they sell their shows to other platforms or channels? Why or why not?

My latest at Decider explores that very question, using Grace and Frankie as the example, given that it’s launching its most recent season today, which happens to bring them to 96 episodes. (As always they crushed it on the key art.)

Along the way I explore or provide the data for…

– The various content deals of the last year or so
– Past streaming to syndication deals
– The relative popularity of Grace and Frankie compared to the “big six” streaming deals.
– Calculate a broad guess at how much G&F would be worth in licesning.

And for the second time, I’m going to give my readers a special offer. If you want to download the Excel file I used to run the calculations—it’s definitely not that complicated, but some have asked for it—click here. (Click on the link.) I also have all my citations in there, and my Google Trends images for completeness.

Here’s all I ask: if you download it, subscribe to my newsletter. That’s the best way to help out the website. 

(As the year progresses, I’m debating monetizing my writing by releasing more of these Excel docs via a Freemium model. If that interests you or you’d pay to support my writing, send me a note to let me know.)

Read it and let me know what you think.

Read My Latest at Linked-In: “Predicting Independent Film Sales in 2020 and Beyond”

Sometimes, it turns out you can’t predict the future.

Which doesn’t stop us from trying, all the time, whether we realize it or not.

That’s basically the theme of my latest article at Linked-In. It shows how small sample sizes and a lack of data make some efforts at predictions essentially impossible. (I’ve been trying to build my profile over there as well, so consider a follow/connection on Linked-In if you use it as your default social media source.)

Specifically, I looked at film festivals, using Sundance sales from past years as stand-in for all festivals. This is also a great example of how people are predicting things—how likely it is they can sell their film—without realizing it—at best folks predict if the market will be weak or strong, rarely with any numbers to it.

Take a read. Even if you’re not a fan of independent film, you can learn more about…

— A brief history of the rise of prestige/independent films.

— How the streaming wars have boosted prices in independent film.

— A history of Sundance sales looks over the last five years…in numbers. 

So check it out!