The 19 Best Articles I’ve Written

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When you’ve been writing multiple articles per week for four years, the number of articles begins to add up. For someone new to this site, I can imagine it’s all a pinch overwhelming. Where should you start? What should you read first? How can you catch up?

Well, I’m writing a few “Guides to the Entertainment Strategy Guy” articles to provide just that roadmap for new readers. (And maybe a few long time readers!)

First up, a look at the “best of” my writing, a compilation of my most influential or popular articles over the last few years. In future articles, I’ll link to every “Explained” article I’ve written, my best long series, and even my articles on nerd culture (Star Wars and Game of Thrones mostly).

Like what you see? You can subscribe to my newsletter here or follow me on Twitter or Linked-In. If you’re a regular, well, maybe you’ll enjoy some of these articles you missed the first time around.

Most Cited Articles

I’ve found myself linking to the following articles over and over and over again in my writing. If anything makes up the backbone of this website, it’s these four articles. 

Explaining “Datecdotes”, When Streaming Companies Use Data to Win the PR Wars (2019) – What do you call it when a streamer or tech company provides a highly selective and curated look at their performance? A “datecdote”, a term I coined and now see out in the wild all the time.

The Most Important Shape in Entertainment: Logarithmic Distribution of Returns (2018) – This shape is the distribution that defines the “winner takes all” economics of most of entertainment and technology. Understand it and you understand everything in entertainment, from the rise of sequels at the box office to virality.

Part I: Distributions Explained
Part II: Logarithmically Distributed Returns
Part III: Examples

Aggreggedon: The Key Terrain of the Streaming Wars is Bundling (2019) – My most controversial take on the “Streaming Wars” is that the most important battlefield isn’t the one everyone is focused on. It’s part of a longer (and unfinished) series on the Streaming Wars from an intelligence analyst perspective.

Most Popular Deep Dives

Netflix Is a Broadcast Channel (2020) – It can feel like Netflix is, overwhelmingly, the most popular provider of content in America, mostly because young and middle age professionals on the coasts–the people who work in entertainment–watch it a lot. But is it? Running the numbers, Netflix is about as big as other broadcast channels. 

Implications, Strategic Impacts and Criticisms
An Update: Netflix Is a More Watched Broadcast Channel
Are Rival Streamers Taking Market Share from Netflix?

My Estimates for US Streaming Subscriber Totals (a.k.a. Netflix Has as Many Subscribers as Disney and Prime Video Put Together in the US)” (2020) – Every streamer provides a different (or non-existent) count of its subscribers. Given my focus on the United States, I provided my estimates for each streamer’s subscriber counts last year.

Disney Has Almost Caught Up To Netflix in the Streaming Wars: Explaining the EntStrategyGuy’s US Paid Streaming Subscriber Estimates- Part I
Is Prime Video Fifth Place in the Streaming Wars?: Explaining the EntStrategyGuy’s US Paid Streaming Subscriber Estimates- Part II

The Bass Diffusion Model…Explained! The Most Important Shape of the Streaming Wars  (2019) and Porter’s Five Forces…Explained (2019) – These are far and away the most popular articles I’ve written, explaining crucial business concepts.

Buzzy Articles

“Is Disney Throwing Away Its Money Generating Machine?” And “The Flywheel is a Lie” (2020) – Flywheels couldn’t be more buzzy in the business press. But do they work? And what are they? And does Disney even have one?

1.2 Million Folks Bought Mulan in the US During Its Opening Weekend (2020) In the midst of a drought of data, I stepped in to estimate how many Americans bought Mulan on its opening weekend. And then I compared it to Tenet.

Netflix produces 3.3% of Its Top Content (2020) One of my favorite conclusions drawn from the Nielsen top ten lists over the last year. (And yes, I know this needs an update with all the data since last year.)

Why I Think Netflix Will End Up with 70 Million US Subscribers: Applying Bass Diffusion To The Streaming Wars (2019) – Two years ago, I put the Bass diffusion model to the test and tried to predict Netflix’s subscriber growth. My model ended up forecasting about 70 million US subscribers at saturation, a forecast that has held up well. 

The Entertainment Strategy Guy

The Entertainment Strategy Guy

Former strategy and business development guy at a major streaming company. But I like writing more than sending email, so I launched this website to share what I know.

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