Tag: Prime Video

“The Mandalorian vs The Queen’s Gambit: Who Won November” at Decider

In what is now a recurring column, over at Decider I took a look at all the ratings data I could find to declare the streaming winner in the US for November. This one is packed with with charts, tables and data.

(If you’re curious for the older editions, here’s September and July.)

Also, I discuss the latest Nielsen streaming data in this thread:

Is Prime Video Fifth Place in the Streaming Wars?: Explaining the EntStrategyGuy’s US Paid Streaming Subscriber Estimates- Part II

(This is the last article in a three part series estimating how many US paid streaming subscribers there are in the US. Read the numbers here, and the first half of the explanation here.)

If you’re wondering, yes, I deliberately wrote three (almost) contradictory headlines for the last two days. In one, Netflix is clearly winning the streaming wars. In the other, Disney is almost winning. In the third, the often second place streamer, Prime Video, got ranked in fifth place. What’s the reality?

Somewhere in between. Or somewhere else entirely.

That’s what the point is for these articles the last two days. Not just to see the current subscriber totals, but to understand the nuances between them. To understand how the numbers interact so we can not just figure out not just who is winning the streaming wars, but what could happen as they get more competitive in the next few years.

Today, I’ll continue explaining how I estimated each streamer’s subscribers, but let’s start with why I did this analysis. At the end, I’ll put some fun charts that summarize this analysis.

The Reasons I Did This Deep Dive 

As I’ve been analyzing the streaming wars, it’s been increasingly clear that this is a war fought on a country-by-country basis. Netflix’s global growth is incredible, but it is only one, likely overrated, part of the story. The actual battles are in individual countries. 

Given how big and important the U.S. market is, it makes sense to start there. Since I’ve been evaluating who is “winning” the streaming wars, I needed to know how everyone is doing in America. Subscribers are one of those key metrics. However, if you search the interwebs, you won’t find a reliable estimate for each streamer. Thus, I needed to build these numbers myself and if I was going to do the work, I should share it here. 

Not to mention, I have a bias against using other folk’s numbers. My rule of thumb is that I don’t trust anyone. Especially if the source of a number is vague/uncertain/biased.

Lastly, I can do this analysis because I’m freed of some journalistic conventions. This website features my thoughts and analysis. Most journalists can only cite specific facts via companies or well-established consultancies/investment research. That’s what leaves most estimates wanting. Since I’m allowed to print whatever I want, I can mix estimates with facts. But I’ll just tell you the difference.

Analysis Continued: How I Determined Each Number

Prime Video

Time for some guesswork. 

As I wrote Wednesday, this will require an estimate of an estimate of an estimate. Or a guess.

First, we have to find the number of Prime subscribers globally. (Itself unknown.)

Second, we have to figure out the proportion who are in the US.

Third, we have to figure out how many actually use Prime Video.

Fourth, we have to guess of those who use Prime Video, how many use it and would pay for it?

Like I said, some guess work!

To start, I looked for US estimates of Amazon Prime subscribers and couldn’t find any numbers I loved. One firm does an annual survey, but they estimated 126 million US subscribers the same month Amazon announced 150 million worldwide Prime subscribers. That’s way too high then. However, the estimate isn’t for Prime subscribers, but folks with access to Prime. (Always ask “What is the ‘what’ in this statistic?”) So you could divide their number by 2.2 (for the number of people per household), and get the potential number of subscribers of around 50 million Prime subscribers in the US. That’s a floor.

On the other end, you could assume Prime membership is related to sales in a given country. Since Amazon breaks out revenue by United States versus Rest of World, we can see that here:

IMAGE 8 - AMazon Rvenue

If that’s the high and low ranges, then what I’ll do is take Amazon’s announced membership in January (150 million), and use some nice round numbers. (And yes, I didn’t model any Amazon growth this year, so yeah, more unknowns on top of unknowns.) 

The next question is how many folks actually use Prime Video. We could use third party sources for that—hang on a moment—but it’s worth building out the sensitivity table just to see how wide the range could be. I made a “Monthly Active” users sensitivity table to give myself a range.

IMAGE 10 - MAUs

If someone uses a service monthly, they are much more willingly to keep paying for it if they have to. (ie. if Amazon some how took Prime Video out of the Prime membership.) I also took a look at “annual active users”, but the range was too wide to be useful.

But I had one other piece of data floating around in my head. See, various streamers like Nielsen and Comscore track streaming usage. And Prime Video and Hulu have been remarkably close over the years. 

IMAGE 11 - Nielsen Total Mins copy

That image is from earlier this year, when I wrote that “Netflix Is a Broadcast Channel”. In other words, if Prime Video has about the same usage as Hulu, it stands to reason it will have about the same number of folks willing to subscribe (at a $6 price point). Prime Video looks like it has grown a bit compared to Hulu over the last few years, but in general, they have about the same amount of usage.

What about the range? Well, you could convince me of anything. For my table above, I could see literally as few folks as CBS All-Access (say about 12 million). On the other hand, maybe folks do value Prime Video more than Hulu. So I could see it up to say 50 million US subscribers. (I just can’t imagine it is as valuable as Netflix when few folks watch nearly as many Prime Video shows.)

Starz

Starz, on the other hand, provided us all facts. In fact, some of the best facts of any of the streamers. While they have changed definitions a few time, they straight list out their past numbers. See?

IMAGE 12 - Starz IR

Kudos for the transparency!

However, like HBO Max, the number of potential “streaming” subscribers is somewhere between the total of all linear and OTT subscribers, and the OTT subscribers only. You can decide where you think that falls, but I count them all for now.

Apple TV+

Now back to the guess work!

Apple has had a good year for Apple TV+, but they refuse to release any numbers on its performance. Complicating things, Apple TV+ is also available globally. This was the same problem we ran into with Disney+, only with less data. The last leak we had was from Bloomberg in February, which estimated that about 10 million folks worldwide are signed up for Apple TV+, with the caveat that maybe half are actually using the service. 

Time for the proxies. Since Apple TV+ is mainly for folks buying new devices, we’ll start there. If you want to analyze potential subscribers by iPhone sales, the best proxy for penetration, here’s the non-China iPhone sales numbers from 2017, according to Business Insider:

IMAGE 13 - iPhone Sales

My logic for Apple TV+ was to take that rough percentage, and boost it slightly for the US, given that most Apple TV+ content is US focused. Then we’d add a 35% “Covid bump”. (Roughly what Starz and CBS All-Access saw this year.) Bingo, we get our guess of 6.8 million customers. 

What about the range? Like Amazon, you could convince me of anything. The high could be all 10 million leaked customers were US based (or nearly so) and the Covid bump got it to 13.5 million. The low would be 2 million folks, all of whom are Ted Lasso fans. (The buzziest show among entertainment business Twitter after Succession.) 

AMC

More facts from AMC. They’ve leaked that they expect their portfolio of streaming services to end the year at around 4 million US paid subscribers. To be clear, this is me cheating slightly since their premiere service AMC+ (which includes content from their other streaming services) may not have passed the 2 million threshold. I’m counting all their streaming subscribers, when you could argue they belong with the “niche” services. Still, they expect to pass the 5.5 million mark by the end of the year. So that’s the high point, with 4 million being the low. 

(I haven’t written on AMC+ yet, but I am bullish on it as a “second tier” player. More to come.)

Peacock

Last guess. Peacock has 22 million “sign-ups”, up from 10 million at their first earnings report after Peacock’s launch. So how many of those are paying? 

I have no clue. None. Zip. Zilch.

But it’s likely small. Given that Peacock is advertising forward, the vast majority of users are likely interacting with it that way. (Of all the companies, I’d love this data point most of all. Well, maybe Apple TV+, then this one.) So I built a sensitivity table, and picked 15% as the number that made sense to me. I’d say the floor is 2 million (just making this list) and up to about 20% of subscribers, or 4.4 million subscribers, if folks are beating my estimates.

The Comparison Table

So with that, let’s make a few final fun tables. First, here’s the chart of my ranges of each estimate. In a lot of ways, this is more valuable than yesterday’s chart:

IMAGE 14 - Min Max Table

These ranges really tell us how wide the potential options are. Hopefully, we learn more over time, but you can see that the premium linear to streaming conversion will be an important statistic to monitor.

And now the confidence ranking table.

IMAGE 15 - Confidence Table in Rank

In other words, you can quickly see who provides clear numbes, who we can confidently estimate and who is the guess work.

Lastly, here’s my full table with the definitions and calculations explained:

Table - Full US Sub Estimates

So this provides a short hand way to know how I calculated the numbers.

Hope you enjoyed and again provide your estimates or feedback in the comments or on Twitter.

Netflix Has as Many Subscribers as Disney+ and Prime Video Put Together In the United States – Visual of the Week

Let me tell you a pet peeve of mine. It’s folks citing how many Amazon Prime Video subscribers Amazon has. 

Because they don’t know.

What you know, or have been told once, is how many Amazon Prime subscribers there are. With Prime comes access to Prime Video. We don’t know how many members actually use that service or, more importantly, know how many value the service enough to pay for it on a recurring basis. (What a subscription is, by definition.)

But here’s what’s crazier: we don’t even know how many Amazon Prime subscribers there are by country. They could have 50 million US Prime members…or 125 million. Literally no one knows. (In fact, we haven’t gotten an update on Prime membership since January.)

This is indicative of a larger phenomenon of the “streaming wars”. The streamers have barely told us how well they are doing. By my estimates, only 4 of the 12 biggest streamers have shared actual US subscriber numbers! (Hulu, ESPN+, HBO Max and Starz)

That’s right, due to non-disclosure, global-only numbers, or definitional craziness, we really can’t compare the streamers to each other in the United States.

Well no more!

I’ve decided to fix this glaring mistake. What I’m going to do is provide the EntStrategyGuy Definitive Estimate for all the major streamers US subscriber base. Today, I’ll provide my table, chart and some notes, then tomorrow I’ll provide the longer, gory details. First, here’s the chart:

Chart - US Paid Streaming SubscribersAnd the table, which I’ll explain tomorrow:

Screen Shot 2020-11-18 at 9.03.01 AM

About That Headline

If the internet weren’t a cesspool of clickbait, I could have just explained what this article is, “My estimate of US subscribers for the streamers.” But that doesn’t get the clicks. A flashy headline on Netflix? That does.

Tomorrow, like I will say multiple times, is where I’ll really provide insights into this process and data. For now, though, if you have one takeaway, it should be that the streaming wars are messy. They are filled with nuance. The more that someone online pushes a simplistic narrative (Netflix has already won; Disney+ will kill Netflix; TV is dead) the less you should listen. There are no simple narratives.

So my headline is 100% true, and building this chart makes that clear. When it comes to one single streamer in the United States, Netflix is about twice as far ahead as its nearest competitors. Really, they are in the first tier by themselves. Then there is a second tier of services with about 35 million subscribers (Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max and Prime Video). Then a third tier of folks trying to break into that second tier (Apple, Peacock, Starz, CBS, Showtime, maybe AMC+). 

Yet, this look is in many ways a backwards looking view. The three oldest services happen to be the three biggest. The difficulty is forecasting what comes next. If we’re looking at growth, Netflix at the top was flat last quarter and down earlier in the year. And likely would have stayed that way all year in America except for Covid. Meanwhile, can the new streamers add subscribers? I think they can.

At least now, we/I have a common fact set to evaluate the United States performance of the streamers.

Quick FAQs

– What about global? I’m just focusing on the United States since many of these streamers are US-only. And we have the best data for this country. As the streaming wars continue, though, I’ll do a similar look for worldwide. (Though comparing global numbers to US only numbers is not a good method to do that.)

– How did you get that Amazon number? It’s an estimate of an estimate of an estimate, which makes it a guess. I’ll explain tomorrow.

– Why didn’t “smaller streamer TBD” make the list? I set the cut off at roughly 2 million subscribers. Anything smaller would have made the chart difficult to read. Again, I’ll explain my rules tomorrow.

– What if you disagree? Well, tomorrow I’ll explain how I calculated each one, so if you want to adjust the estimates you can. That will allow you to disagree, but within the right zone of possible answers.

– [From Corporate PR] You got our numbers all wrong! One, if you don’t put them out, then no I didn’t. If any company wants to correct my math, send me three years of financial data and I’ll happily provide an exclusive update.

(This is the first article in a three part series estimating how many US paid streaming subscribers there are in the US. Read about how I calculated the numbers here or here.)

Who Will Win the Battle for the next “Game of Thrones”?: How “People” Change the Odds of Success

(This is another entry to a multi-part series answering the question: “Who will win the battle to make the next Game of Thrones?” Previous articles are here:

Part I: The Introduction and POCD Framework
Appendix: Licensed, Co-Productions and Wholly-Owned Television Shows…Explained!
Appendix: TV Series Business Models…Explained! Part 1
Appendix: TV Series Business Models…Explained Part 2
Appendix: Subscription Video Economics…Explained Part 1
Where We’ve Been)

Two weeks ago, we checked back in on the news about the contenders vying to be the “next Game of Thrones”. Let’s keep the momentum going and get right into the “People” portion of our framework. At the end, I’ll unveil my current working model for evaluating TV series.

Why “People” Matter In Every Deal

The “people” in a typical venture capital deal are the leaders of a start-up. This means the founders and the soon-to-be chief officers. Is the CEO a great technology guy, but not great at scaling? Or an operations guy who has a dynamite CTO already in place, but no marketing experience? Conversely, is the product great and so is the opportunity, but you need to replace the leadership to make the company truly succeed? (Uber/WeWork much?)

In a real world example, lots of investors in Quibi invested because of the team of Jeffrey Katzenberg and Meg Whitman. He could handle content; she’d handle everything else. (Only later did we find out they couldn’t work well together.)

As I use the “POCD framework” for evaluating TV series—a concept I dabbled with at my previous job—I’ve found the “People” portion to be extremely important. Who is the showrunner? Who is the creator? Are they the same person? Or do you need to bring in a more established showrunner to replace the creator’s vision? Does the showrunner have the ability to manager a team, or will they do it all themselves? Can the writers work with the directors to bring their vision to bring the show? Are the producers able to corral the showrunner and bring things in on-time and on-budget?

Hopefully, the answer to all those questions are positive. Meaning the creator has a great vision, the showrunner can deliver on their vision, the writers room writes great content, the directors can film it, and the production team will run everything well. The reason this is important is because, if a studio can hire the right people more consistently than competitors, they can achieve outsized returns.

Those outsized returns fall into two rough buckets. The first bucket is the “quality” bucket: Can the show runner make a good nee great show?

Well it depends. Unfortunately, most showrunners and creators are…average.

Average isn’t bad, you see. It just means that while all showrunners are great people—and indeed highly skilled at what they do—their “hit rate” is average. Which means that most of the time the shows and films they make are bombs/duds and a few times they are blockbusters. (About 1 in ten.) That’s just the math. That’s right, logarithmic distribution of returns applies to the people making shows too:

Slide03 copyAt the far right end, some showrunners can buck this trend to reliably churn out hits, but they are few and far between. Think Greg Berlanti, Shonda Rhimes, Mark Burnett or Chuck Lorre. Even then, they have more duds than you initially remember when you scan their IMDb. If either Game of Thrones or Lord of the Rings had a top tier showrunner attached, it would increase the likelihood that a show becomes a “hit” or “the next GoT/superstar” in our model. (Or if they had a top tier development exec with a similar track record. No streamer does yet.)

The converse to good showrunners is a chaotic leadership situation. If a show has lots of creators moving in and out and lots of directorial turnover, that’s a bad thing. (Though not always. The Walking Dead did just fine and it’s on its fourth showrunner.) 

My model also punishes showrunners with extensive mediocre track records. Which unfortunately is quite a few showrunners out there. For all its admiration of experimentation, Hollywood is surprisingly conservative at decision-making. Development executives hire the same writers and directors instead of trying someone new because it’s “safer”. These showrunners produce a show for a few years that is mostly “Meh” (a technical term), and then move on to another pitch/job. In the model, if I saw a fantasy series had that type of showrunner, it would increase the likelihood that a show is another also ran TV show, not the next Game of Thrones.

The second outcome is the “logistics” bucket. Can a show come out on time and on budget?

When it comes to making blockbusters, this is less important. However, if you’re running a business, given that 95% of showrunners are average, this can be the difference between profit and loss. This can be forecast, with the right data, pretty reliably. I, for example, knew that certain showrunners and directors who worked regularly with our streamer would be late or over budget when we hired them, because they were late or over budget previously. Unfortunately, this type of data isn’t public available—studios don’t make a habit of sharing when they go over budget—so I can’t use it in this series.

It is worth noting that this was part of the genius of HBO and Game of Thrones. They managed to keep that show on every single year while being the most expensive show on television. But an incredibly efficient expensive show, if that makes sense. 

(The great production houses out there—Jason Blum, HBO the last two decades, Marvel this decade—really do deliver on time and on budget, while hitting high quality bars. That’s not an accident.)

Meanwhile, most of the streamers struggle to get second seasons out within 18 months of big shows. We don’t know if these shows are “on budget” but with the way Netflix spends money, probably not? While this is important, it won’t make the model because we won’t know about financial/timing trouble until it happens.

The Results

With that explanation in mind, I’m going to be fairly conservative on evaluating these leadership teams. While picking people is really important, the benefits don’t show up on an individual show, but on a long-term/portfolio level.

Thus, I’m more worried about overvaluing “noise” than true signal in evaluating these leadership teams. (Long term, I hope to do more data analysis to better judge creative hires, but I don’t have those databases yet.) As a result, I’ll default to the “null hypothesis” more than usual.

Let’s go show by show.

Read More

Who Will Win the Battle for the next “Game of Thrones”? : Where We’ve Been

 

(This is another entry to a multi-part series answering the question: “Who will win the battle to make the next Game of Thrones?” Previous articles are here:

Part I: The Introduction and POCD Framework
Appendix: Licensed, Co-Productions and Wholly-Owned Television Shows…Explained!
Appendix: TV Series Business Models…Explained! Part 1
Appendix: TV Series Business Models…Explained Part 2
Appendix: Subscription Video Economics…Explained Part 1
)

A trope of genre fiction is the character with unfinished business. The lone wolf who harbors a grudge against someone or something that harmed his family, destroyed his life or stole his (or her) kingdom. 

July was “unfinished business” month at The Entertainment Strategy Guy headquarters. I’ve started quite a few series and let news or time distract me from finishing them.  Having checked back in on “Should Your Film Go Straight to Netflix?”, “Coronavirus Impact on Entertainment” and “The Star Wars 2019 Business Report”, it’s time to return to a series that’s over a year old, diving into a deliciously provocative topic: which TV series will make the most money for its streamer, the next Game of Thrones or the next Lord of The Rings?

Why didn’t this series get finished? Two reasons. First, I got severely distracted by explaining all the math behind my models as I was building them. This resulted in five articles that were essentially “appendices”. (Seriously, if you want to understand the economics of streaming TV, check them out.) Second, pulling the data on past fantasy TV series and movies took longer than I anticipated.

No more! Today I’ll review:

– A summary of this series so far.
– An update on the news in “fantasy TV” since last summer.

Summary of Where We Were

Cue the narrator voice for a genre series returning after a two year hiatus: “Previously, on GoT vs LoTR vs Narnia”. My challenge is about as difficult: explain a several thousand word series in a few hundred words. 

This series was inspired by the general rise in fantasy programming at all the streamers. It wasn’t just Amazon that wanted the next Game of Thrones, so did Netflix and Disney+ and even HBO itself. I framed the question as:

Which franchise will make the most money for its streamer in the future, Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings or Chronicles of Narnia?

My initial assessment—what I call a “Blink” look—is that HBO will win. Frankly, they paid way less than Amazon. (Initially described as a $250 million dollar deal for Amazon.) Then I heard that Amazon guaranteed 5 seasons! That’s at least $1.25 billion, and maybe more. That only gives the edge even further to HBO. At first, I didn’t really consider Netflix a viable competitor. (I was wrong.)

Then I moved onto the analysis. Which means building models to see what they tell us. The basic formula is pretty simple:

(The probability of success X The revenue upside in success ) — Costs = Likelihood of money made

The tricky part is calculating all that. To explain it, I’m using the “POCD” framework: 

People
Opportunity
Context
Deal

It’s a framework from the venture capital world, but I’m applying it uniquely to TV series. Essentially, people, opportunity and context describe how much revenue a company can make, and the deal explains the costs. 

I’ll make a bespoke model for every series under consideration using the various POCD inputs to change the probabilities or potential revenue/costs. I explained the TV profit model here and here, and also explained the tricky nature of streaming video economics here. (Those last two articles laid the ground work for my series on “The Great Irishman Project”.)

Then came the distraction. Since I had built this kick-ass TV series business model, I decided to use it on the original Game of Thrones. In a big piece published on Decider, I estimated how much money I thought GoT had brought in for HBO. (A whopping $2 billion plus.) This provides terrific context for the “upside” of all these fantasy series. (I wrote a few “director’s commentaries” for this article too.)

So that’s where my series left off. But the news didn’t end just because the series was delayed.

All The News Since Last Summer

When I started this series, I focused on three fantasy series based on arguably the three most influential fantasy books of all time…

Game of Thrones prequel (HBO)
Lord of the Rings prequel (Amazon)
Chronicles of Narnia (Netflix)

 Since then a few fantasy series have come out…

The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance (Netflix)
Carnival Row (Amazon)
His Dark Materials (HBO)
The Witcher (Netflix)

And more have been developed or are in production…

The Wheel of Time (Prime Video)
Sandman (Netflix)
– Untitled Beauty and the Beast (Disney+)

If all those qualify for this battle, we’re up to 10 potential contenders for the replacement for Game of Thrones. And that doesn’t include potential series (Disney’s Book of Enchantments and Lionsgate’s The Kingkiller Chronicles) that died in development. And I haven’t even looked at Syfy’s lineup to see what else could qualify. (The incomparable Magicians just ended after their fifth season. Pay attention to that data point for later.) 

The Specific Updates

HBO and Game of Thrones prequel

In one of the more fascinating single day development moves, HBO both cancelled one prequel series (The Long Night/Bloodmoon) and announced another prequel series about the Targaryens (set about 300 years before GoT) called House of Dragons. I could spin this as good or bad for HBO, but either way their series is still happening. Right now, HBO is saying the prequel will arrive in 2022.

Amazon and Lord of the Rings prequel

Amazon meanwhile is furthest ahead, having started production this spring in New Zealand, only to be another Covid-19 casualty. (Though I believe production is set to start production soon or already has.) Amazon was under time pressure to get a TV series in production within two years, and that appears to have motivated the streamer.

Netflix and Chronicles of Narnia

If you search for Chronicles of Narnia and Netflix, you run into a series of articles asking, “Is this thing still happening?” And no one really knows. Netflix insists it is, and Entertainment One has hired a “creative architect”, but there is no release date or known shooting schedule. Which means we’re going to drop this series from our main contenders for another lower down.

The Dark Crystal and Carnival Row 

I’d describe these two series and “came and went” at Netflix and Amazon (respectively). Like the Magicians, these two series demonstrate that not every fantasy series is a guaranteed blockbuster. Though the former was arguably more popular due to the “Netflix Effect”. Still, neither is set to be the next Game of Thrones. 

HBO and His Dark Materials

As one of HBO’s first “Monday premieres”, this series was overwhelmed by Watchmen in terms of buzz. It has a better chance than either of the two previous series at being a future Game of Thrones, but the odds of that are pretty low.

The Witcher on Netflix

And now we have a legitimate contender! Lots of folks pointed out that I should have dropped Narnia for The Witcher when I first started this series. Indeed, The Witcher may have single handedly helped Netflix meet subscriber targets by releasing right at the end of 2019. It is arguably Netflix’s first or second biggest show currently on the air. (With the acknowledgement that “on the air” is an anachronism.) In other words, The Witcher has a great chance to be the next Game of Thrones.

Meanwhile, I’m going to monitor every other fantasy series that pops up in development or production. (For example, Amazon’s Wheel of Time series has promise.)

Now that we know where we’ve been, and what’s happened since, we can move into our four-part framework for predicting which of these series will win the battle. Tomorrow, we’ll continue with the first letter in our framework, P for People.