Category: Streaming Ratings

Did Raya And the Last Dragon Sell 1.18 Million Copies in the US on Its Opening Weekend?

Let’s start by what question I’m NOT answering today:

Should Disney keep releasing films to “premiere access”?

Ultimately, yeah, I want to answer that question. It’s really important. (For those who don’t know, Premier Access is the movies released at the same time as theaters that cost $30. I’ll call this PVOD, or premium video-on-demand for the rest of the article.) Presumably, if we know how much money Raya and the Last Dragon made in PVOD, we’ll have an idea if Disney should release its future films on PVOD.

in addition to PVOD, we need to factor in different release styles, Covid-19 and the quality of the films that were released. There are so many variables to these release strategy equations, along with so few examples, that evaluating success would be more about justifying our prior beliefs than finding truth. 

What can I tell you? 

That I think Raya and the Last Dragon sold about 1.18 million units on its opening weekend, with a low end of 840K and a high of 1.48 million. Ultimately, that means I think it will make about $150 million PVOD sales globally, in addition to $94 million in box office, with $32 million domestic.

That took a lot of math. Which I’ll explain. But before we can go forward, let’s go backwards.

How Many People Bought Mulan?

Given that the release of Mulan was so unique, multiple analytics/streaming measurement firms jumped into the fray to provide data about how many folks watched it. I summarized this in three articles last fall, ultimately landing (initially) on about 1.2 million folks ordering Mulan during its opening weekend. Here was a table that acted as a “poll of polls” on Mulan:

IMAGE 1 - Poll of Polls

(Really, you should read all three articles on Mulan to understand how I work though a data problem like and to learn about film economics.)

A few weeks later, Nielsen came out with their estimate, and it was notably higher. Using some calculations, like the number of people in the household and the completion rate, I came up with a range from 1.4 to 1.8 million people watching it according to Nielsen. Combining the two, I’d say 1.2-1.8 million folks purchased Mulan on its opening weekend in the US.

That led to this projected revenue from Disney Premier Access window for Mulan. This estimate includes the decay for the next two months, along with global purchases:

IMAGE 2 - Mulan Revenue

The Lack of Data for Raya and the Last Dragon

Because Mulan was so unique, lots of folks tried to figure out how many units it sold. And they told us publicly. Which meant I could make that kick butt analysis chart with several estimates.

Raya is no longer the shiny new release strategy on the block. Heck, Warner Bros. decided to release ALL their films to HBO Max. That’s the big headline now. And it meant way fewer people were paying attention to Disney’s PVOD ambitions. Also, each week new films are releasing in theaters. When Mulan released on Disney+, it almost had the theatrical calendar to itself.

Which meant that fewer firms leapt into the “How did Mulan do?” sweepstakes this time around. But not everyone, so we can take some stabs at the data. 

– First, Nielsen provides their weekly three top ten lists, which has been the most consistent and reliable data set I use. (In fact, I don’t mention data websites that don’t release regular data anymore to bias towards regular data releases.) 

– Second, Antenna also released an estimates of purchases by Raya. They have released a few charts of PVOD and TVOD sales since 2020, so we can use this to make estimates.

– Third, Google Trends is available.

Meanwhile, I scoured the interwebs for anyone else making estimates, and couldn’t find any. Reelgood released a top opening weekends in film in Q1 2020, but Raya didn’t make the cut. As far as I can tell, Samba TV and 7Park didn’t provide updates either.

Luckily, three data sources is enough to make some estimates.

How Popular was Raya and the Last Dragon?

Um, middle of the road. As I wrote in my streaming ratings report yesterday, a good rule of thumb to determine if something is popular is whether it makes Nielsen’s combined “top ten” list for Nielsen. (Nielsen provides three separate top ten lists, sorted by Originals, Acquired and Films. I then combine them by total hours viewed into a refined top 30.) In terms of hours, Mulan was watched for 8.8 million hours during its opening weekend, but only 5.9 million hours for Raya and the Last Dragon.

You can see this in the Antenna data as well, which gives a good clue that both Nielsen and Antenna are measuring the same impact:

IMAGE 3 - Antenna - Raya Sign Ups

Finally, we can put these films into Google Trends as well. Again, similar story:

IMAGE 4 - Google Trends

So Raya was a fine film. It was definitely not a blockbuster, but did just well enough that it probably isn’t a total flop. (Notably, for Disney an “average” film is probably a flop for their expectations. But that’s because they are so far ahead in feature films.)

So How Many People Bought Raya and the Last Dragon?

To figure this out, first, I made a table comparing the estimates by their various different measurements:

Image 5 - Demand Comps

For a simpler look, here are those numbers in percentage terms:

IMAGE 6 - Percentage of Demand

Google Trends is the outlier, and Antenna and Nielsen are extremely close in their estimates, which makes me trust them both more. If you take nothing else away from this, you can say, 

“Raya was about 80% as popular as Mulan on PVOD.”

Lastly, using some math, I estimated the different potential units sold:

IMAGE 7 - Estimated Units Sold

There is a lot of math on this, so some quick notes on my assumptions:

– I used both my 1.2 million and 1.8 million units sold for Mulan to estimate the sales for Raya. I used both because both are reasonable estimates. I trust Nielsen most as a data source, but I also trust the poll of polls. 

– For Google Trends and Antenna, I multiplied their percentages by both those numbers. That gets numbers 1, 2, 3 and 5 above.

– For Nielsen, I did the same analysis as Mulan, dividing viewership by the length of the film, which helped Raya in this case. However, I think Raya as a kids film has a higher completion percentage than Mulan. Actually, it could be dramatically higher, given that kids watch films over and over. My completion percentage is 125% for the low case. It is 100% for the regular case. This gave numbers 4 and 5 above.

– For both Nielsen numbers, I used 2.25 as the number of viewers per household.

With that math in hand, it gave me these numbers for the potential revenue in PVOD for Raya and the Last Dragon, which you can compare to Mulan above. 

IMAGE 8 - Revenue Estimates

How Did Raya Do At the Box Office?

Lastly, Raya also came out in theaters. While Mulan made nothing at the domestic box office, Raya did okay, and netted $93 million it its global run so far and $32 million at home. Here’s how that compares to other pandemic released titles, according to The Numbers:

IMAGE X - Theatrical

In Conclusion…

Those are the numbers. Again, what do they all mean? I’ll be honest, the initial draft of this article had, oh, a thousand extra words and I still didn’t answer that question as well as I wanted. So I’ll have more to say in the future. But for now we can say Disney again sold about a million units (plus or minus several hundred thousand) for its latest Premier Access title.

WandaVision and Coming 2 America Both Smash the Streaming Competition – The Streaming Ratings Report for 7-April-2021

If you’ve been reading my “Steaming Ratings Report” for the last few weeks, you might have noticed it has been fairly Netflix-centric. Netflix is the 600 pound gorilla in the streaming wars. Heck, it is more like a Mighty Joe Young or Rampage-sized super gorilla, marauding over the globe, buying sequel rights for half a billion at a pop. 

But if the movies have taught us anything about super gorillas, it is that nature always finds a way…to give them a worthy foe. In King Kong’s case, Godzilla. In Netflix’s case, that’s HBO Max, Disney+ and, this week, Prime Video, dropping formerly intended-for-theaters now straight-to-streaming blockbusters. Like Coming 2 America and Raya and the Last Dragon, which was Disney+’s latest “Premier Access” video.

Today, we’ll look at Coming 2 America in depth, and tomorrow I’ll do a special article on Raya over at my website. In addition to Coming 2 America, I have some unique insights on WandaVision now that it has finished its run.

(Reminder: The streaming ratings report primarily covers data from Nielsen’s latest report, which covers the week of March 1st to 7th and is United States-focused. However, we also consider Netflix datecdotes, daily top ten lists, Google Trends and IMDb data in evaluating content. Also, to get this report in your inbox, sign up for my newsletter.)

Film

IMAGE 1 - First Film

Let’s start with the good news for Prime Video, which was that their film did really, really well. It broke the “20 million hours” of total viewing threshold, which only three other films have done on their opening weekend going back to March of 2020.

Here’s the first week numbers for all films on Nielsen, going back to March 2020:

Screen Shot 2021-04-07 at 3.35.17 PMIMAGE 3 - Chart

What’s the biggest takeaway from this? That Disney+, HBO Max and Prime Video can compete for viewership as high as anything Netflix can deliver for a single film. Impressively, Coming 2 America joins this list as a film released on a “Friday” meaning it only had 3 days of viewership in the Nielsen ranking.

Of course, blockbusters aren’t made just by opening weekends, but staying power. What can we expect from Coming 2 America in its first full week of release?

According to the Nielsen data, the average film loses 63% viewership per day from week one to week two. Meaning, if Coming 2 America performs to the average, it will have 15.1 million hours of total viewership next week. Anything over that means its decay rate is beating expectations; anything lower means it is decaying faster than streaming films on average. You could convince me either way: on the one hand, Prime Video doesn’t release nearly as much content as Netflix, so folks may keep watching it; on the other, folks don’t watch Prime Video as regularly. In our one Prime Video data point, One Night in Miami decayed by 70% week over week.

All of which leads to the question, “Was this a good investment for Prime Video?” Industry reports put the price tag for Coming 2 America at $125 million for Amazon. In general, you’d have to say it is pretty good to get nearly as much viewership on an adult comedy like this compared to what Disney and HBO spent on their top two titles in December. (Both of which run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, versus the merely $125 million price tag of Coming 2 America, a film which cost $60 million to make.)

Or think of it like this: Prime Video spent about 33% more, reportedly, on Coming 2 America ($125 vs $80 million) than Borat, but got more than twice as much viewership. 

Tentatively, yeah I’d say this deal worked out for Amazon, though I still think that Coming 2 America would have done pretty well at theaters, a counter-factual we’ll never find the answer to.

Other Quick Notes on Film

– Fare thee well to Nomadland and The United States versus Billie Holiday on the film list. I was hoping this could be the week that we feature four different colors on the same top ten, but we’ll have to wait, maybe until Nielsen adds HBO Max viewing to their tracking.

IMAGE 4 - Nielsen Top 30

– What about Raya and the Last Dragon? Well, it was in the 17th spot on the top 30 list, which has to be a disappointment for Disney. (Mulan, for context, was 10th.) But not a huge disappointment, because getting folks to buy a movie for $30 is fundamentally more valuable than just watching it! But this is a complicated topic, so I wrote an entire article on it for tomorrow.

Bigfoot Family is a good example for why looking at both “total hours” and “viewership per day” is instructive. (The latter is also a metric you’ll only find here!) It actually rose in total viewership week-over-week (going from 5.6 million hours to 6.1) but still decreased in per day viewership by 52%.

– Netflix had some other new films make the list, including Moxie from Amy Poehler and Biggie: I Got a Story to Tell, a documentary, at 4.3 million and 3.4 million hours, respectively.

Television

IMAGE 5 - TV Ratings Last Six(Spoiler warning: I intend to make some jokes about WandaVision’s plot.)

We spent a lot of time on film today, since it was pretty fun, but you know what? We have a fun story with TV to tell too. Specifically, today is the day that WandaVision gets its turn in the spotlight (or should I say “reality altering bubble”).

As you can see above, WandaVision is unique compared to most streaming shows because it actually grew viewership week-over-week. It debuted a new episode weekly and grew the audience along with it. Now that the series has ended, we can compare viewership during its entire run to the entire run of some other Netflix series. The total viewership of WandaVision actually compares favorably to other shows on Netflix. Over 8 weeks of time, as opposed to one weekend, WandaVision was the twelfth most watched show in my data set:

IMAGE 6 - Total Viewerhsip

(This chart was made by sorting all “first run original” series on their respective streamer, through the first 8 weeks of viewing.)

But let’s not stop there. It isn’t very fair to compare WandaVision with only 9 episodes released over 8 weeks to some of these shows, like The Crown, Ozark or Cobra Kai which have 40, 30 or 30 episodes released to date. So let’s trot out our “viewership per episode” metric I’ve been using. And we get this…

IMAGE 7 - VPE

Suddenly, WandaVision and The Mandalorian are now up to the fourth and fifth most popular shows according to this bespoke measurement. And these would probably hold up even if we had more data from 2020. (The Queen’s Gambit likely would have added additional viewership during its weeks seven and eight, if we had the current reporting system of three top ten lists.) 

Admittedly, this metric biases for series that have recently launched, since they tend to have many fewer episodes. Still, among that class of show, WandaVision and The Mandalorian likely outperformed most Netflix Originals.

But can we go one step further? As long as we’ve taken over an entire town via mind control, we may as well bring back our dead robot-husband, right? 

Let’s magic into existence one more metric. Unlike the other shows on this list, WnadaVision episodes were short. The first episode was only 30 minutes. Half an hour! And a lot of the run time is just dubbing credits. (Literally, like five minutes worth.)

So could we account for that? A “viewership per available hour” metric, meaning it accounts for the total viewership for the total amount of content folks could watch? Why yes we could!

IMAGE 8 - VPAH

There you have it. An analysis of the Nielsen data you won’t find anywhere else. And yes, in this metric, WandaVision leaps to the top spot. The meaning? I believe that more unique viewers likely tuned into this show than any other Netflix Original released this year, except for maybe Bridgerton. Or The Mandalorian and maybe The Queen’s Gambit in Q4 of 2020.

By the way, this shouldn’t be too surprising! The two most popular franchises in America—after Knives Out of course—are Marvel and Star Wars. And when you look at Google Trends, yep, these are our two highest ranked shows for longest. First, without The Mandalorian, and then with it:

IMAGE 9 - Without Mando

Image 10 - With Mando

So I just dropped three different, totally valid, metrics to judge TV show performances. (Technically four with Google Trends.) Which metric is “best” to judge a show? Well, that depends! Entertainment isn’t like sports, which have clear winners and losers. Instead, it depends on what your business metrics are how the various shows support those metrics.

For Disney, these numbers are fantastic. It means using their weekly release model, they really can drive as much subscriber tune in as the top Netflix series. Of course, Netflix in some cases is launching four or five series at this level every quarter. Really it is a question of tradeoffs: is it better for one series each quarter to keep people subscribed, or multiple series every month that drive higher usage? That’s a business strategy question we’ll see play out this year.

Other Quick Notes on TV

-As I speculated last week, Ginny & Georgia went on to grab the top spot in the streaming ratings. If the weekly top ten list is to be believed, it could hold onto that spot for a few weeks.

– The latest crime documentary is Murder Among the Mormons, which launched to 9.8 million hours viewed. Which is good, but behind some other recent launches.

– Since Nielsen separates out “originals” into their own top ten list, we’ve seen some older Netflix originals finally show up in the top ten viewing. The latest is Orange is the New Black, with 4 million hours of viewing.

Competition

The most popular piece of non-streaming content during the week of March 1st was fairly clearly the Meghan Markle-Oprah interview that aired on Sunday March 7th. Unfortunately, Paramount+ isn’t tracked by Nielsen, so we don’t have streaming ratings. But 17.1 million people tuned in live for this one show, which shows you how much room some the streamers still have to grow.

Coming Soon! 

– The big story of the week, to continue the gorilla theme, is that HBO Max is out touting that Godzilla vs Kong did very well for them. Which is notably more than they said about Snyder Cut. (Others said that the new Justice League did well, but not HBO PR.) Fingers crossed we’ll get more data on this in a few weeks, though so far Nielsen hasn’t released any HBO data since Wonder Woman 1984.

Netflix Claims the Top Spots While Disney+/Hulu Dominate the Film List: The Streaming Ratings Report for 31-Mar-2021

Last week, the Nielsen Top Ten lists broke new ground when Hulu had its first title earn a spot on one of the three lists. This week, Hulu doubled its performance, earning two spots!

IMAGE 1 - T30

As always, caveats abound. In particular, the top films have much less “total viewership” than TV series, since they simply aren’t as long, almost by definition. (A film is 2 hours, whereas most drama series are at least 4 hours, often 10 hours long.) This point is worth keeping in mind as the theme of this week, especially as we check in on how “competitive” the streaming wars are in top content.

(Reminder: The streaming ratings report primarily covers data from Nielsen’s latest report, which covers the week of February 22nd to 28th and is United States-focused. However, we also consider Netflix datecdotes, daily top ten lists, Google Trends and IMDb data in evaluating content.)

Television

IMAGE 2 - TV Ratings Last Six Weeks

As usual, the top spot on our weekly top 30 list is from Netflix, but close on its heels is the indefatigable WandaVision, whose penultimate episode powered its way to the second place spot on the “Top Ten Originals” list by Nielsen. (Along with a new record in viewing.) Based on Google Trends interest, we can rightly bet that the finale will go even higher. We’ll have to wait to see if it takes the top spot next week. 

Image 3 - G Trends

The show vying to keep it off the list is Netflix’s new drama Ginny & Georgia. At first glance, its opening weekend was a bit soft, below stronger debuts from both Firefly Lane and Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel. To put this in context, here’s the first two weeks of Netflix’s first run TV series since November:

IMAGE 4 - Show one Week

I’d call a show with 30 million viewers in one week “great”, and 20-30 million “good”, and 10-20 million “meh”. (Yes, “meh” is a technical term.) Staying below is 10 million is a dud. Ginny & Georgia is currently in our “meh” tier through week one. The bad news for Ginny & Georgia is that most shows don’t increase viewership over time. Here’s a sample of first run shows that premiered since December:

Image 5 Week Decay

In this admittedly small sample size, 7 shows had smaller audiences and only two had bigger second weeks. But there is some good news for G&G. Some shows can take time find their footing, as both The Queen’s Gambit and Bridgerton showed last year. As the Google Trends chart showed, unlike most Netflix shows, Ginny & Georgia had a slower rise than most new releases. But it looks like that rise will hold; G&G nabbed the top spot in the Netflix TV like it daily top ten list, which is a good forecaster of Nielsen ratings. (More to come on this in future articles.)

Image 6 - NFLX Top Ten

The one limit to top ten data is that a show can take the top spot, but that could be more of a reflection of a light TV slate than a strong individual show. Given that it looks like G&G sticks around for a few week, I’d say it has a good chance for a strong second week. We’ll see. 

Other Quick Notes on TV

– I’m working on classifying everything into “kids” versus “adult” (but not adult meaning “pornography”, I mean like older folks). This week felt light on true kids content in the TV space, with only Cocomelon holding down the younger kids fort. Cocomelon is clearly the biggest beneficiary of kids watching and rewatching the same limited number of episodes. 

The Crew had a fairly steep drop off from a weak start, so we can officially say it bombed. Yes, that’s a bit harsh, but hey, you’re not tuning in to a ratings report for me to pull my punches, are you? Overall, sitcoms do seem to struggle in the metrics (including, datecdotes, Nielsen and weekly top ten). Either 1. Streaming doesn’t work for sitcoms or 2. Netflix doesn’t have nearly as good a track record with sitcoms as hour dramas. (Before you ask, yes I’ve considered that sitcoms have shorter episodes, but the success of some of the Netflix crime documentaries, which can be shorter than sitcom seasons, refutes that. Moreover, that should’t impact subscriber households. More to come!)

Film

IMAGE 7 - Film First and Second Run

Let’s start with the content geared towards adults first. I Care A Lot had a bigger second week than its premiere week, which has been the trend for popular films launched on a Friday. Being able to hold onto the third spot in the weekly top ten is great for a feature film, though also some evidence that the week was lighter in content overall.

Meanwhile, Nomadland stayed on the list and The United States versus Billie Holiday made it onto the top ten. For Hulu, this is good news. But they still have quite a ways to go. 

Consider this: we know Hulu has about half as many subscribers as Netflix in the US. (About 40 million for Hulu; about 65 million for Netflix.) Assuming these three films were all about the same length (they were), and everyone watched about the same amount, then roughly 1 out of every 38 Hulu subscribers watched Billie Holiday and 1 in every 20 watched Nomadland, but 1 in every 5 Netflix subscribers tuned into I Care A Lot. 

Maybe I Care A Lot is simply a better film with more inherent interest. More likely, Netflix is still the biggest player in the streaming game. That means it can drive extra viewing to its titles, which is the biggest challenge for the upstart streamers to battle.

Moving onto kids, the big player is still Disney, which placed four kids films into the top 10, including the second week of Flora & Ulysses. (Using the percentage of viewership, about 1 in 10 Disney+ subscribers watched that in its first two weeks.) Meanwhile, Disney as a whole grabbed 7 of the top ten film slots, though Netflix’s animated Bigfoot Family came in second to I Care A Lot. In other words, Disney claims the library title slots, but Netflix claims the “new release” spots. 

Other Quick Notes on Film

The Conjuring 2, a licensed title from 2016, is the latest library title to take the top spot after being a new release on Netflix. This title is owned long term by Warner Bros, so it joins the list of titles that one wonders when it will permanently move to HBO Max.

– Another good international title launch. Bigfoot Family is a Belgian-French production and it debuted to the second spot in the film top ten list. Some other foreign animated titles have done well as well, most notably the Spanish-produced Klaus. My working (and not very original) theory is that dubbing is simply easier in animation.

Competition

The theme of this week may be “let’s not get carried away” with Hulu catching up to Netflix. (And the rest of the streamers as well.) As notable as it is that Disney dominates the film list, the film list, that is frankly an easier list to dominate as a smaller service. The rule of thumb at the streamers is that “films bring customers; TV keeps them”. 

Hulu, of all the streamers, should be great at the TV side of the house, given how much day-after-air TV they have. Yet, they still haven’t really cracked these lists in TV. But they did in film. Looking at the percentage of viewing by the major streamers this year, clearly Netflix’s size is still dominant:

Image 8 - Totals

Last point: This was the lowest week in total viewing measured in the top 30 list since Nielsen began releasing it this year, with 207 million total hours compared to 290 during the Christmas break.

Coming Soon! 

– We’re starting to get hints that the Snyder cut of the Justice League really is doing the business for HBO Max. Both Antenna and Samba TV have speculated on the growth it drove. I’ll opine on this after I’ve collected all the datecdotes and, hopefully, we get Nielsen data on it. (Same for Raya and the Last Dragon, which should come next week.)

– Netflix has released a stream of datecdotes recently, but the most interesting was announcing that in addition to 33 million viewers at launch, Our Planet has had 100 million viewers over its lifetime. This number begs for context, so I’ll work on it. (That’s the third “more to come” of this column.)

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Did Netflix’s The Crew Stall Out? – The Streaming Ratings Report for 24-March-21

When I sit down each week to pull data for the “Streaming Ratings Report”, it honestly feels like Easter. (Why Easter? Well, we’re closer to that than Christmas and my eldest child is excited for candy delivered in plastic eggs.) This week, my chocolate-filled egg was a new color on the Nielsen rankings. That’s right, a new color! 

Check it out yourself:

IMAGE 1 - Top 30

For the last few weeks, the top ten has only been Netflix and Disney+. The other two big players, Hulu and Prime Video, haven’t had any shows or films make the list. Prime Video’s last entrant was One Night in Miami in January. Hulu has never made a Nielsen top ten list. Until now! Since I color code each streamer, seeing a new color in the chart made me irrationally happy.

(Reminder: The streaming ratings report primarily covers data from Nielsen’s latest report, which covers the week of February 15th to 22nd and is United States-focused. And due to an unscheduled childcare issue, this report is a day late.)

Television

IMAGE 4 - TV Ratings Last 6

This week was a down week for Netflix on the TV side. The two big series we covered last time had their expected week 2 and week 3 drop-offs, which the weekly top ten data indicated. Moreover, the two new releases of the week would have failed to chart in Nielsen’s “top ten”, if it still combined originals, acquired and film in the same list. (That’s my current back of the envelope for whether something launched well.)

Let’s dig into one of those to put a little bit of context on Netflix’s overall viewing. Specifically, The Crew, a Kevin James helmed, NASCAR themed sitcom of 10 episodes, averaging about 27 minutes per episode. For the week, it netted 9.3 million hours in total. Which, in context, is about half of what Firefly Lane and Crime Scene did last week. Even worse, it was launched on a Monday, so it doesn’t have the “we only had three days of data” excuse.

What fascinates me, and should fascinate you, is that this is a “Kevin James” series. Sure, many reading that will be like, “Yeah, I don’t get what the deal with him is.” Fair enough but he did helm this:

King of Queen’s Nielsen Ratings via Wikipedia:

IMAGE 5 - King of Queens Data

That’s right, he was one of the building blocks of CBS’ monster sitcom and procedural lineup of the last two decades. (Also, I ride and die for the underrated Hitch.) That said, his last outing on CBS only lasted two seasons, Kevin Can Wait:

Kevin Can Wait Nielsen Ratings via Wikipedia:

IMAGE 6 - Kevin Can Wait

Let’s venture a comparison. With the tremendously huge caveat that streaming is fundamentally different than linear viewership, it is notable that The Crew had fewer than 10 million total hours viewed. We don’t have an apples-to-apples way to compare a full-season of live viewership to one week of binge viewing in a precise way, but no matter how you do it, this show likely stalled out in the middle of the streaming race.

Think of it like this, if 10 million Kevin James fans tuned in, then they watched about two episodes each. Or only 2 million tuned in and watched all ten episodes. In other words, the show either had a small initial audience or low completion rate. Or middling for both. And since this is streaming, the show will rapidly decay in viewership. This was its only shot, short of a second season, to get viewership.

In comparison, CBS can still get 7 plus million viewers to watch Young Sheldon. And that’s just one day of viewing:

IMAGE 7 - Nielsen Ratings

What tentative—and very cautiously tentative—conclusions can we draw here? The Crew likely didn’t launch due to some combination of 1. It didn’t work creatively 2. Netflix still doesn’t index well with the typical “CBS demo” and 3. Kevin James on his own isn’t enough of a draw. If I had to pick, I’d go with one, especially since Netflix released it on a Monday, which is as close as they get to “burying” a show, though explanation two intrigues me.

Other Quick Notes on TV

Good Girls—the NBC Universal owned, NBC aired—release on Netflix drove it to the top spot in TV. Want to know why Comcast/NBCU are so heavily invested in Peacock? It’s seeing viewership like this on other platforms. Shows clearly do have a second life on Netflix, and traditional channels now want to own that second life.

WandaVision had its highest week of viewership yet, breaking 12 million total hours viewed, up from around 10 million the week before. A sign of a “great” to “elite” TV series is that it can grow its audience in season 1. (Elite series then grow the audience season over season.) WandaVision is doing that, and all evidence is that it will peak with the season finale. (It is unclear if WandaVision will have a second season.)

IMAGE 8 - WandaVision

Film

IMAGE 2 - First and 2nd Run Film

The big winner this week was Netflix’s I Care A Lot. Until I build my “historical” film comps—a trickier task than you’d think—I recommend this rule of thumb: “Did a film make into the top ten?” Even better, did a film make the top ten after launching on a Friday (Extraction, Spenser Confidential, The Old Guard, The Christmas Chronicles 2)? This week, I Care A Lot joins that crew, which means it had a good launch in the US.

From there, take a gander at the film in the second spot on Nielsen’s “Top Ten Films”. (As a reminder, Nielsen releases three top ten lists each week, with their definitions of “original TV”, acquired TV and film.)

IMAGE 3 - Nielsen Top 10 Films

Flora & Ulysses beat my expectation and made it onto the top ten list, but only with 4 million hours viewed. Back in 2019, I predicted that Disney could cut into Netflix’s then dominant streaming position with kids. The performance of Flora & Ulysses, along with the library titles like Frozen and Moana is what I meant. Though let’s not get too crazy. At only 4 million total hours viewed, F&U is clearly a kids title, not a four quadrant blockbuster. 

What about Nomadland, the other new entry? Well, it was pretty far from making the top ten list. For an Oscar nominated film—not at the time, but now—this isn’t terrible. Most “prestige/critically-acclaimed/awards-contending” dramas simply have limited upside. Still, at least Hulu finally had a piece of content make the “top 30” list. It will be fascinating to see if The Handmaid’s tale fourth season will crack the TV list this April.

Other quick notes on Film 

– Want some back of the envelope logic? Well, we know that Hulu’s Run opened Friday November 20th, and Hulu touted it as their “most watched” film of all time. They didn’t make the same claim for Nomadland. Thus, Nomadland is Run’s total viewership “floor” at 2.3 million hours and 7.6 million (the lowest total on Nielsen’s top ten from the week of November 16th by NCIS) is its “ceiling” in total minutes viewed. In other words, between 2.3 and 7.6 million people watched Run in its opening weekend.

War Dogs had the second week decay we expected and will likely drop off the top ten next week.

– The presence of Avengers: Endgame is not an accident. It is Marvel’s highest grossing box office title of all time, and it is the first MCU film to make the Nielsen top ten list. As for what’s driving this? Who knows. It could be WandaVision motivating some fans or just the general weakness in the film slates across the streamers. But as for a point I will often make: box office predicts popularity in the long term. Thus, if you were to guess the most popular Marvel film on Disney+, guessing the highest US box office grosser of all time would be the correct guess.

– Oh fine, is there a Netflix point with the Avengers: Endgame performance? Sure, this is 2 million hours of viewing that previously would have lived on Netflix. Moreover, I remain convinced that the top library titles on Netflix were Disney films of some sort or another. Avengers: Infinity War, likely, was a huge title on Netflix in 2019 when Endgame was first released in theaters.

– At the end of each quarter, after their earnings report, I’ll dig deep into Netflix’s “datecdotes”, when they provide the number of subscribers (“households”) who watched two minutes or more of a given show or film. They’ve released a few this quarter so far, but the most notable American example is Yes Day starring Jennifer Garner, which was seen by 53 million households globally in its first 28 days.

Coming Soon! 

– Battle of the Superheroes! Last weekend, The Falcon and Winter Soldier went head to head with The Snyder Cut remix of 2017’s Justice League. Given the buzz, both will likely make the Nielsen top ten when it is released in four weeks, if Nielsen is tracking HBO Max by then. The caveat is that the buzz was definitely for Justice League, so it may have over-indexed in buzz that didn’t translate to viewership:

IMAGE 8 G TRends

– Speaking of Nomadland, the Oscars announced their candidates for “the year without films, the 2020 Academy Awards”. Closer to the show, we’ll review the available data to figure out how popular these films were. (Another reason we need a “streaming box office” report.)

How Big Were Firefly Lane and Crime Scene for Netflix? – The Streaming Ratings Report for 17-March-21

As often happens in scientific/data endeavors, sometimes you work for hours/days on a project with no results, then, all of a sudden, it comes together and you make tons of progress rapidly. And usually the “tons of progress” doesn’t happen without the days of drudgery. 

That’s what happened to me over the last week or so. After a few days of struggle, yesterday morning I had a breakthrough. Which delayed publishing this article. Unfortunately, most of the benefits won’t be immediately obvious, as they’re updates to my backend system to help me analyze more data better and faster. (Don’t worry, a few juicy tidbits make sneak in this week.)

(Reminder: The streaming ratings report primarily covers data from Nielsen’s latest report, which covers the week of February 8th to 14th and is US viewing only.)

Television

IMAGE 1 - Nielsen TV Ratings Last Six

If three words define my goal for this report, they are “Context, Context, Context”. You can go to the trades to find a summary of Nielsen’s data. This week you would have learned that the top two series (again for the week of February 8th to 14th) on Netflix were Firefly Lane and Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel with nearly identical 21.4 and 21.5 million total hours viewed.

So the question is: are those good or bad numbers?

Well, thanks to the data work of the last week or so, I think we can start to provide some answers. Context!

Let’s start with the new launch. Using my Nielsen database, I collected all Netflix “first run”—meaning Netflix Originals—series in my database going back to March 2020. Why season one/limited series only? Because it just isn’t “apples-to-apples” to compare The Crown, which has 40 episodes as of this writing, to a show with only four. (This was only one of the data projects of the last week.)

According to Nielsen’s data, 23 TV series netted a spot on a weekly top ten (in 2020) or top ten “originals” spot (in 2021). Of those, Crime Scene did phenomenal. It had the third strongest opening in total hours viewed and the second strongest opening for series in the “viewership per episode” metric I also calculate. Here’s the total viewership of those 23 series:

IMAGE 2 - total by day week dayPretty good!

But there’s a catch. (With data, there always is.) In addition to the “season” launched, I added the day of the week. Thus, I can cut the data in quite a few different ways. In this case, see if you can spot my thesis:

IMAGE 3 - Table by DayYep, I arranged the new series by release day of the week.

Why does this matter? Nielsen’s data covers a week worth of viewing, but that means that shows released earlier in the week have, by dint of time period measured, more of a chance to succeed in the rankings. Thus, we need a new metric, one I’ve used before called “average viewership per day”. Here’s that look in chart form:

IMAGE 4 - Chart Viewership by DayTakeaways? Well, yeah Crime Scene is one of Netflix’s bigger hits. More impressively, it did that with a very small number of episodes. But the extra few days of viewing definitely helped. Toss in the small number of episodes, and it will likely decay quickly. (As have past true crime documentaries.) We’ll watch for that. That said, Netflix does have a true crime niche that clearly is working. And it is likely much cheaper to make true crime docs than big budget scripted TV.

What about our second big series, Firefly Lane? It had a big second week. Again, the question is, how good is 21.4 million viewers in the second weekend? 

To answer this, I pulled the second week of data for the 30 first run Netflix series with Nielsen data in their first or second week of release. That gave me this table:

IMAGE 5 - Drop Off TableOf the 15 new series (season 1 or limited) launched since March 2020, Firefly Lane had the eighth best second weekend. However, unlike many other series which grow their audience into the second weekend, Firefly Lane was essentially flat. Using “viewership per day”, it declined 30%, when the average series drops only 23%. Bottom line? It is a good show, and maybe a great one. But it isn’t “elite”, like Bridgerton.

(For those who are curious, I have data for 33 first-run TV series. 7 series in the data set had an opening weekend in the top ten, but then dropped off week 2 and 8 series didn’t make the list in their first week, but did for the second. Two didn’t have numbers until week 3 and one series I don’t have data for its second weekend, Tiger King.)

Also, using the weekly top ten data, do we think these two shows will hold on? For Firefly Lane, yes; for Crime Scene, no. Crime Scene could, though, outperform Firefly Lane during the week of February 15th.

IMAGE 6 - Weekly Top Ten 2 SeriesAs I said above, we’re just scratching the surface here. As Nielsen continues to publish three weekly top ten lists, our ability to judge successful launches (and bombs/busts) will only grow.

Other Quick Notes on TV

WandaVision added it’s sixth episode, and grew its total viewership to 9.9 million hours from 9.8 million the week before. That’s impressive, and it will be fascinating to see if Falcon and Winter Soldier mimics that growth. In other words, part of my thinks that something like 7-9 million folks are watching just one episode on Disney+, which would make it one of the most watched series by unique viewers.

– In the sign of a down week besides the top of the charts, Lucifer made its first appearance on a top ten since new episodes came in August, showing up as the tenth series in the “Originals” top ten list, with 3.2 million hours viewed.

– Looking at the releases by weekday, you can see above that Wednesday really is “true crime” documentary day on Netflix, with releases like Fear City, Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich, Night Stalkers and Crime Scene.

– Regret the Error 1: When new episodes of Cobra Kai premiered, I changed the label from “second run”, meaning episodes premiered on Youtube TV first, to “first run”, because new episodes premiered on Netflix first. But I didn’t update weeks three to five, so my data table made it look like it dropped to zero. That’s been fixed this week.

Film

IMAGE 7 - Film First and Second Run

The big Netflix original launch for this week was the third part of To All The Boys I Loved Before. I’m not ready to deliver as much context for film as TV this week—trust me, we’re getting close—but since Netflix released it on a Friday, To All The Boys will likely take the top spot in next week’s Nielsen rankings. (For this week, I cut all films released in 2020 to focus on new releases in 2021 so far.)

As for the third weekends of the two films we monitored last week—The Dig and Finding ‘Ohana—both are still on the list, but decaying week over week as expected.

As for films we didn’t expect, the top film on streaming wars…checks notes…looks it up on Wikipedia…squints eyes in confusion…checks notes again…War Dogs. Yes, the Miles Teller and Jonah Hill helmed, Todd Phillips directed, drama from 2016. It was new to the platform and got the “new to Netflix” bump.

Here’s the consolidated top 30, which shows how light film was compared to TV this week:

IMAGE 8 - Nielsen Top 30

Other Quick Notes on Film:

– We had another international film to make the top ten film list, Space Sweepers from South Korea with 2.3 million hours viewed. According to my data, this is the first South Korean film to make the Nielsen rankings.

– Oh, and we have one of the first non-kids Disney+ films to make the list, Avengers: Endgame, also with 2.3 minion hours viewed. This reinforces one of my working theories that, when they were on Netflix as part of that huge output deal, the Disney films drove tons of repeat viewership.

– Regret the Error 2: I jumped the gun on Malcolm & Marie (M&M), but luckily I wasn’t too wrong. During Super Bowl weekend, I made a note to myself that M&M was going up against that big sporting event. But then, researching for my database, I saw on Wikipedia that M&M had a limited release in theaters on January 29th, and somehow recorded that as its release. In reality, Netflix released it on February 5th, the Friday before the Super Bowl. Thus the Nielsen ratings from February 8th-14th cover M&M’s second weekend of release and I previously wrote that Super Bowl weekend was its second weekend of release.

To compound the mistakes, my article last week was confusing in that I transitioned from a bullet point on M&M into a bullet point on The Little Things, without clarifying that I had switched films. For clarity: Malcolm & Marie was a Netflix film, but starred the talent from HBO’s Euphoria (lead actor and director). Meanwhile, The Little Things was Warner Bros’ second release on HBO Max and theaters simultaneously. With that context, here’s the Google Trends chart I showed last week:

IMAGE 9 - Film Trends

The unfortunate thing is that we don’t have data on either film—Malcolm & Marie on Netflix and The Little Things on HBO Max. Nielsen doesn’t track HBO Max yet and M&M likely didn’t have enough viewership. We can extrapolate that for M&M its interest/buzz (as shown by Google Trends) clearly exceeded its actual performance (as shown by the lack of Nielsen data).

Did the Super Bowl Take a Bite Out of Streaming Ratings? The Streaming Ratings Report for 7-Feb-21

If you read my “Who Won the Month” articles over at Deciderhere, here, here, here, here or here—you’re probably wondering where one of my favorite data tools has been. That’s right, I’m talking about Google Trends data. It’s not perfect but when it works, it works wonders. And this week we have just such a job.

The focus of these reports is “streaming”, but streaming ratings don’t occur in a vacuum. Even as cord cutting has accelerated, more folks subscribe to cable TV in America than don’t. Those who don’t usually still steal borrow their parents log-ins when needed. Meaning a big TV event on broadcast could still, potentially, impact streaming ratings.

Was there an event during the first week of February? For sure: the Super Bowl.

(As a reminder, since Nielsen’s ratings have a four week lag, the Nielsen data is from the week of February 1st to February 7th, which includes the Super Bowl on February 7th. At the end, I’m testing a new feature for the series/films premiering between then and now.)

TelevisionIMAGE 1 - TV Last Six UPDATED v02The winner of the week of February 7th was Netflix’s season 1 of Firefly Lane, which sure seemed like a bit of counter-programming to the Super Bowl, at 21.8 million hours viewed in its opening week. It also premiered on a Wednesday, likely to help find an audience before the weekend.

Meanwhile, Disney’s WandaVision is gaining strength week-over-week, rising to a season high of 9.8 million hours viewed, up from 7.2 the week before. (Though Bridgerton still had more total viewership.) How does this compare to some other weekly-released genre series? Glad you asked. Here’s the ratings data per week, along with the “per episode” viewership:

IMAGE 2 - Three Looks at Genre

I gave three data cuts, because I can’t decide if factoring in season one episodes or only season two is a better look for an approximation of “viewers per episode”. Either way, the ability for WandaVision to grow its audience and potentially pass The Boys in viewers per episodes is impressive. 

Even more impressive? WandaVision is about half the length of The Boys and 3/4th of The Mandalorian. I’m dabbling with a “ratings” score for TV series, which factors in the number of episodes and their length. When it’s ready—tentatively April—you’ll see that analysis.

Will WandaVision’s ratings hold up through the season finale? Probably. Here’s the Google Trends look for the big shows of January:

IMAGE 3 - G Trends Jan Shows v02

Tons to unpack here. First, Cobra Kai had a buzzier peak, but you can see that Bridgerton passed it in staying power. This aligns with the Nielsen data, which is why I trust both these sources. Meanwhile, if the Google Trends hold, WandaVision will keep adding viewership just like Disney’s previous tentpole series, The Mandalorian.

IMAGE 4 - GTrends - Mando v WandaVision

At first, I was going to type, “Disney’s hit rate on TV seasons is now 3 for 3 which is incredible”, but that would be wrong. One of the themes of this report will be to look for “dogs that aren’t barking” to quoth Sherlock Holmes. In this case, we forget that Disney has indeed launched other series, even scripted ones like Muppet’s Now. The majority of these have been smaller reality series. The better way to describe it is that Disney has successfully launched every “tentpole” series to date. If The Falcon and Winter Soldier can continue that trend, that’s a tremendous competitive advantage for Disney: Once per quarter Disney+ has a new series that makes it must tune-in for millions of households.

Other Quick Notes on TV

– Kids TV has a bit of a “dogs not barking” situation too. Specifically, whereas Netflix can routinely put kids series into the originals or licensed top ten—Cocomelon, Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous—Disney hasn’t yet. Explanations could be: 1. Disney has many more kids series, so viewing is more dispersed. 2. Kids watching Disney tend to rewatch movies or 3. More kids watch Netflix overall. We’ll need more data to figure it out. (In the meantime, check out Emily Horgan, writing at What’s On Netflix, for deeper look at kids data on Netflix.)

Blown Away stayed on the top ten originals list of this week, which surprised me. Still its on the downward trend cycle like most other originals.

Fate: The Winx Saga had a big drop off into its third weekend. It would have dropped off the “combined top ten” list this week.

FilmIMAGE 5 - FIlm First RunAs I opined last week, The Dig and Finding ‘Ohana did well for Netflix, rising to the first and second spots in the film list. However, the numbers are a pinch misleading. If you look just at the above chart, you’d conclude that there wasn’t much decay week-over-week in the ratings. Au contraire, as I’ve written, “The decay is real.” In this case, if you factor in the number of days the film is available, you see the decline. (In other words, total viewing per day.)

IMAGE 6 - Film DecayLet’s make a call: were The Dig and Finding ‘Ohana hits? I don’t think so. Truly popular films don’t just top out on the film list, but earn a sport on the combined Nielsen Top Ten list. Neither of these films did that, in the weakest week of 2021 so far.

Other Quick Notes on Film

– Is it just me, or is it genuinely shocking that Malcolm & Marie didn’t make this list? Talk about a “dog not barking”! It’s by the creator of Euphoria, with the lead star of Euphoria. That is about the buzziest show in the world—it won an Emmy!—and their film didn’t crack the top ten on its opening weekend for Netflix.

(Update: After hitting publish, I updated these two sections. Previously, I put that Malcolm & Marie was in its second weekend, when it premiered the Friday before the Super Bowl. Also, the next bullet point was supposed about Denzel Washington’s The Little Things, which was poorly written and unclear. We–meaning I–regret the error.)

– Fine, let’s just call this week the “dogs not barking” edition. The other film with a big January release was The Little Things on HBO Max and theaters simultaneously. But Nielsen didn’t report numbers for it either. In this case, it’s because Nielsen wasn’t measuring it. To get an accurate result, Nielsen needs a statistically significant amount of viewership on a given streamer to make the top ten lists. Right now that only includes Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu and Disney+. They made an exception for Wonder Woman 1984. Instead of Nielsen, Google Trends can give an idea how well The Little Things and Malcolm & Marie did:

IMAGE 7 - Film Trends

In other words, The Little Things did pretty well! HBO Max has kept marketing these films like tentpoles, and awareness is doing really well.

Did the Super Bowl Impact Total Streaming Viewing?

Did the Super Bowl suck the oxygen out of the streaming room? Maybe. Here’s the total viewership of the Nielsen Top ratings charts for 2021, including all numbers, the top 13 (which is we know for certain) and the top five pieces of content:

IMAGE 8 - Weekly Total ratingsLikely the Super Bowl caused a down week, but the numbers had been trending down since December’s big finish. Still, the lack of new releases by most of the major studios reinforced the decline. It’s a chicken and egg situation: did the Super Bowl cause down ratings, or did streamers avoid Super Bowl weekend, which caused down ratings

Either way, they were smart to do so. Here’s the Google Trends for the TV series, with the Super Bowl:

IMAGE 9 - Super Bowl Trends

Coming Soon! 

I’ve started to get some questions—and please send me more! Twitter or email—about some recent releases and my thoughts. Unfortunately, Nielsen has a four week publishing lag, and since I trust it the most, it delays this report. Here’s a sneak preview of major releases I’m monitoring for February to March:

Raya and the Last Dragon. Last fall, one of my most read articles was this analysis determining how many folks watched Mulan on PVOD for Disney+. Will I replicate that analysis for Raya? Probably. Most likely, I’ll wait until we have the Nielsen data in four weeks.

Coming 2 America. According to Google Trends, it’s as popular as Amazon and Screen Engine claim. Though I’d love to have concrete data.

IMAGE 10 - Film with C2A

– The Snyder Cut “Mistake”. HBO Max “accidentally” replaced Tom and Jerry with The Snyder Cut over the weekend. Which feels almost impossible from a project management work flow perspective. Both Tom and Jerry and The Snyder Cut are on my radar.

– Oprah’s interview with Meghan Markle (and that guy who was with her.) This was hugely popular. Interestingly, while it streamed on Paramount+, ViacomCBS doesn’t own it, Oprah’s Harpo Productions does. Where could it end up on streaming next?

– Apple TV+’s Billy Eilish’s documentary was huge. For them. For whatever that means. Julia Alexander at the Verge splashes cold water on this for us.

A Down Week Makes for Some Strange Ratings: The EntStrategyGuy US Streaming Ratings Report for 3-March-21

[Editor’s Note: This is the second edition of a new website feature, a weekly report on streaming ratings. One of the quirks of the streaming wars is that no one knows what shows or movies are doing well, what are doing poorly and what failed to launch. If you have any questions or data you’d like to see, let me know!]

This week’s ratings are frankly one of the weirder weeks since Nielsen started releasing their top ten lists. Since ratings were down overall, smaller and odder titles got a chance to make the list.

Television

IMAGE 1 - TV LineAs with most weeks, Netflix was the dominant performer. What makes this week strange is how it got there. 

Only two originals made the top ten in overall viewing. One of them was Bridgerton, which testifies to the incredible staying power of that show. Bridgerton is likely an “elite” series for Netflix in the United States now, along with Stranger Things, Orange is the New Black, Ozark and The Crown. Fortunately, Netflix owns Bridgerton outright, unlike OITNB, Ozark or The Crown. 

Though a hit series (without new episodes) can only drive viewing for so long, and Netflix’s end of January launches didn’t seem to hit. Season two of reality series Blown Away only had 7.3 million hours viewed, which in 2020 would not have been enough viewership to make the top ten lists most weeks. Bling Empire didn’t make the top ten originals list for a second week either. Fate: The Winx Saga did gain week over week, but it will likely fall off the list in the next week or two, judging by its top ten list performance. (It is also the latest in a line of teen dramas produced by Netflix. At some point, all Netflix series may take place in high school/boarding schools.)

The other big series were library or second run titles, including the latest season of Outlander. Here’s the top ten list if you only highlighted wholly-owned or originals:

IMAGE 3 - Nielsen 30 Originals Wholly

Which brings us to the studio/streamer dominating the film list, Disney. Many third party analytics firms continue to estimate that WandaVision is one of the most watched series in the US. (See Parrot Analytics or TVision for two examples.) So why doesn’t WandaVision perform higher in Nielsen’s ranking? The explanation is simply that series with more episodes do better in total hours viewed, as I showed last week. This trend only continued this week. WandaVision added only a single episode, but its total hours went from 6.3 million to 7.2 million.

Other Quick Notes on TV

– US viewers continue to avoid international originals, except for shows from other English speaking countries. Indeed, the most exotic series come from Canada (Schitt’s Creek, Blown Away), the UK (The Dig) or joint US/UK series (Outlander, The Crown). Notably, all English speaking series. Technically, Fate: The Winx Saga is partly from Italy, but that series is also based on a show that aired on Viacom’s Nickelodeon and is in English. The hypothesis that Netflix is able to take advantage of global scale to launch series may be true, but that’s happening despite the US, which continues to watch English language programming.
Disenchantment by Simpson’s creator Matt Groening is likely a disappointment. Premiering on January 15th, it has already dropped off the total hours list.
Longmire is the latest Netflix original to make an appearance on the bottom of the “Originals” top ten list well after its latest season dropped. Other examples from January include Designated Survivor appearing the week of December 28th and Great British Baking Show throughout January.
– As expected, Lupin with only four episodes dropped off the US top ten lists after only two weeks in the top ten.

FilmIMAGE 4 - Feature Films

Film may be even weirder than TV. The biggest film on Netflix was Lionsgate’s The Next Three Days, which was originally released 11 years ago and only grossed $67 million at the US box office. It was added on January 22nd, so what a “Netflix bump”.

Even stranger, it wasn’t like Netflix didn’t try to launch some own original films of their own. Netflix released at least three potentially big films, The Dig and Finding ‘Ohana. The Dig and Finding ‘Ohana both made the top ten list for film. All three were released on a Friday (January 29th) so they could gain steam. However, as we’ve seen repeatedly, most films usually lose viewers in their second and third weeks, especially when measuring by day.

The Netflix daily top ten lists to get an idea of where this is trending. Using FlixPatrol’s collection of this data, here’s February’s list. Finding ‘Ohana will likely gain the most:

IMAGE 2 - Weekly Releases

Other quick notes on Film

– The expanded look provided by Nielsen (three top ten lists instead of one consolidated) continues to provide additional insights as we get more data. For example, the importance of recently released films is even more important than I had thought. Of the seven new pieces of content to make one of the top ten lists for the week of January 25th, six premiered in January. And four were released in the week of January 25th, including Below Zero, Finding Ohana and The Dig.
Soul has decayed down to Mulan/Frozen II levels. I suspect that Onward likely dominated the film lists in the spring, though I don’t have data to prove it. If this is true and Soul performs similarly, then Soul will likely stay at this level until Disney has a new kids film to launch on the platform, meaning Raya and the Last Dragon after its “Premiere Access” window.
– Netflix’s library titles that are action or thrillers seem to over-perform. Of the January titles on the film list, many fit this bill, some with obscure origins like The Next Three Days, Killers, 30 Minutes or Less, The Vanished and Homefront.

Competition

Netflix dominated streaming in January. Of the forty films or series in the consolidated top ten in January, only one was not on Netflix, Soul during the week of 4-January.

Nielsen Top Ten Last 4 weeks

[Editor’s Note. I hope you enjoyed this quick look at the ratings data of the week. And trust me I know this is very “Nielsen”-heavy analysis. It won’t stay that way. I’m working on adding weekly top ten rankings, IMDb, Google Trends and other data slices to make this as comprehensive, while readable as possible. The key, though, is that I don’t want to add any data source piecemeal or anecdotally. I have to analyze, vet and understand the data before incorporating it.

By the way, if you’re an analytics firm who would like to partner or provide data, please don’t hesitate to reach out.]

Nothing Compares to Bridgerton in January: The EntStrategyGuy Streaming Ratings Report for 24-Feb-21

[Editor’s Note: Today, I am testing a new website feature, a weekly report on streaming ratings. One of the biggest pain points of the coverage of the streaming wars seems to be that no one knows what is doing well, what is doing poorly and, frankly, what customers want. For example, folks saying that here, here or here for just three examples. 

As this website enters its fourth calendar year, I’ve been looking for ways to expand my coverage. Solving the ratings problem seems like a pretty good way to do it. I’ll be explaining more in the future, but for now, I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think.]

One of the challenges in reporting on ratings is the lag time from when a show premieres to when we get actual data on it. If we rely only on Netflix, for example, we can get results sometimes after the first weekend, but sometimes delayed up to nearly eight weeks. Nielsen is the most reliable and regular reporter on streaming ratings, but they delay ratings by four weeks to double check their data.

So yes, this is a ratings report for the week of “February 24th”, but it covers mostly the data through January 24th. Confused? Yeah, welcome to the streaming wars. 

[Another Editor’s Note: My analysis will be only of the United States to start. We have the best data in the US so far. As data expands, so will my coverage.]

(Sign up for my newsletter to get all my writings and my favorite entertainment business picks from the last 2 weeks or so. Next issue goes out early next week.)

Television

IMAGE 1 - TV Ratings Last Six Weeks

The biggest winner of January is Bridgerton, which continued its dominance of the Netflix top ratings charts. Notably, new releases such as Cobra Kai, Disenchanted, and Lupin all failed to knock Bridgerton from the top spot in the US. This type of performance is really what separates truly “elite” TV series from simply “good” series.

As for competition, Disney+ remains the best competitor to Netlfix in streaming. (Since the fall, Disney has had two original series on the list, and the last non-Disney was Prime Video’s The Boys.) And the total viewing hours might actually undersell how popular the Disney shows are. For example, here’s the January release chart by “Hours viewed per episode”. 

IMAGE 2 - Hours Viewed per Episode

Hours viewed per episode is a temporary metric I’ve been using to gauge how well new series are launching. It isn’t perfect—for example, WandaVision is half as long as some of these other series, so arguably this even undercounts WandaVision viewers—but for now it works as a proxy for demand per episode. The takeaway continues to be, like The Mandalorian, Disney has high “bang for the buck” when it comes to viewers per series.

[Another Editor Note: Yes, this first edition is Nielsen heavy. Going forward, I will add additional data sources to my analysis, including top ten ratings, Google Trends, and new metrics/scores for how well content is doing. It will be a process.]

Other Quick Notes on TV

– Library TV series continue to do well on Netflix, but the departure of The Office provided an opening for other series. For example, Jenni Rivera: Mariposa del Barrio made the top ten list, and that’s a licensed show (originally from Telemundo, produced by NBC Universal) that has been on Netlfix since 2017. New Girl also seems to be a regular feature on the acquired TV list.
– New content still drives Netflix viewership, showing that even more than library, customers flock to what’s recently premiered. Henry Danger for kids and L.A.’s Finest are examples of library or second run content doing well in January.
Lupin is the first French title to make a Nielsen list, but it wouldn’t have made the top ten in either week. Given that Netflix announced it will have an estimated 70 million global viewers in the first four weeks, this is another data point that international titles just don’t perform as well in the US as they do abroad, despite narratives otherwise.

Film

IMAGE 3 - Film first and second

Outside the Wire is Netflix’s latest big action film and it bucked the trend of big declines from the first opening weekend to the second. However, it also launched much smaller than Extraction (18.5 million hours) or The Old Guard (16 million). We’ll see if it can sustain this into a third weekend. 

Otherwise, the story is similar to the one I described in my last “visual of the week” in that the film list is the home from kids content. Frozen 2, Moana and Soul look set to stay well streamed going forward. A fun question will be if We Can Be Heroes drops down like other Netflix titles or acts more like the Disney stalwarts.

Other quick notes on Film

– Amazon Prime Video’s Oscar candidate One Night in Miami didn’t have a big opening, but it did have minimal week-over-week decay. The question going forward is whether all Amazon titles act like this (due to a smaller catalogue, hence more promotion on the home page) or if this represents some genuine growth via word of mouth praise.
Pieces of a Woman on Netflix did experience the likely expected big decay from its opening weekend, dropping off the list after it’s opening weekend.
The White Tiger actually got a Netflix datecdote with an estimated 27 million global viewers in the first four weeks. With presumably 1-2 million or so viewers in the US—dividing the two hour run time with a 70% watch rate—this likely shows that the film under-indexed in US viewing, as most intentional titles do.

[Yet Another Editor Note: My goal with this weekly report is to keep it to 800-1,200 words, which is short for me.]

Competition

My big question for the streaming wars this year is simple: will this fight be competitive?

Looking at the last year, you’d say it isn’t a fair fight. Netflix is far and away the biggest streamer in America, whether you measure by subscriber or by total usage. That’s why I’ll be tracking a few metrics to determine whether Netflix is pulling away from the pack, or whether the pack is catching up to Netflix.

Here are the top ten pieces of content in film or TV series by streamer going back through the last six weeks:

IMAGE 4 - Streamrs Share Top Ten

The good news if you’re not Netflix? Well, when the traditional studios went all in, they took quite a bit of market share from Netflix. Christmas was the Soul/Wonder Woman 1984 deluge, and frankly it got a lot of eyeballs to Disney+ and HBO Max.

The good news if you are Netflix? As soon as the studios stopped releasing their big guns, Netflix went back to owning the entire list. For example, in the past a show like WandaVision, with only 3 episodes generating 6.3 million hours watched, would have dropped off our radar. 

IMAGE 5 - Top 30 List

The goal for the Amazons and Disneys of the world is to move up from owning the “film” portion of this list to owning more spots on the top ten and fifteen. We’ll see if they can do it.

[Last editor note: I hope you enjoyed the first installment of the EntStrategyGuy ratings report. I’d love to hear from you on what you liked, what you didn’t and what you want more of. Thanks in advance!]