Tag: Ratings

Nothing Compares to Bridgerton in January: The EntStrategyGuy Streaming Ratings Report for 24-Feb-21

[Editor’s Note: Today, I am testing a new website feature, a weekly report on streaming ratings. One of the biggest pain points of the coverage of the streaming wars seems to be that no one knows what is doing well, what is doing poorly and, frankly, what customers want. For example, folks saying that here, here or here for just three examples. 

As this website enters its fourth calendar year, I’ve been looking for ways to expand my coverage. Solving the ratings problem seems like a pretty good way to do it. I’ll be explaining more in the future, but for now, I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think.]

One of the challenges in reporting on ratings is the lag time from when a show premieres to when we get actual data on it. If we rely only on Netflix, for example, we can get results sometimes after the first weekend, but sometimes delayed up to nearly eight weeks. Nielsen is the most reliable and regular reporter on streaming ratings, but they delay ratings by four weeks to double check their data.

So yes, this is a ratings report for the week of “February 24th”, but it covers mostly the data through January 24th. Confused? Yeah, welcome to the streaming wars. 

[Another Editor’s Note: My analysis will be only of the United States to start. We have the best data in the US so far. As data expands, so will my coverage.]

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Television

IMAGE 1 - TV Ratings Last Six Weeks

The biggest winner of January is Bridgerton, which continued its dominance of the Netflix top ratings charts. Notably, new releases such as Cobra Kai, Disenchanted, and Lupin all failed to knock Bridgerton from the top spot in the US. This type of performance is really what separates truly “elite” TV series from simply “good” series.

As for competition, Disney+ remains the best competitor to Netlfix in streaming. (Since the fall, Disney has had two original series on the list, and the last non-Disney was Prime Video’s The Boys.) And the total viewing hours might actually undersell how popular the Disney shows are. For example, here’s the January release chart by “Hours viewed per episode”. 

IMAGE 2 - Hours Viewed per Episode

Hours viewed per episode is a temporary metric I’ve been using to gauge how well new series are launching. It isn’t perfect—for example, WandaVision is half as long as some of these other series, so arguably this even undercounts WandaVision viewers—but for now it works as a proxy for demand per episode. The takeaway continues to be, like The Mandalorian, Disney has high “bang for the buck” when it comes to viewers per series.

[Another Editor Note: Yes, this first edition is Nielsen heavy. Going forward, I will add additional data sources to my analysis, including top ten ratings, Google Trends, and new metrics/scores for how well content is doing. It will be a process.]

Other Quick Notes on TV

– Library TV series continue to do well on Netflix, but the departure of The Office provided an opening for other series. For example, Jenni Rivera: Mariposa del Barrio made the top ten list, and that’s a licensed show (originally from Telemundo, produced by NBC Universal) that has been on Netlfix since 2017. New Girl also seems to be a regular feature on the acquired TV list.
– New content still drives Netflix viewership, showing that even more than library, customers flock to what’s recently premiered. Henry Danger for kids and L.A.’s Finest are examples of library or second run content doing well in January.
Lupin is the first French title to make a Nielsen list, but it wouldn’t have made the top ten in either week. Given that Netflix announced it will have an estimated 70 million global viewers in the first four weeks, this is another data point that international titles just don’t perform as well in the US as they do abroad, despite narratives otherwise.

Film

IMAGE 3 - Film first and second

Outside the Wire is Netflix’s latest big action film and it bucked the trend of big declines from the first opening weekend to the second. However, it also launched much smaller than Extraction (18.5 million hours) or The Old Guard (16 million). We’ll see if it can sustain this into a third weekend. 

Otherwise, the story is similar to the one I described in my last “visual of the week” in that the film list is the home from kids content. Frozen 2, Moana and Soul look set to stay well streamed going forward. A fun question will be if We Can Be Heroes drops down like other Netflix titles or acts more like the Disney stalwarts.

Other quick notes on Film

– Amazon Prime Video’s Oscar candidate One Night in Miami didn’t have a big opening, but it did have minimal week-over-week decay. The question going forward is whether all Amazon titles act like this (due to a smaller catalogue, hence more promotion on the home page) or if this represents some genuine growth via word of mouth praise.
Pieces of a Woman on Netflix did experience the likely expected big decay from its opening weekend, dropping off the list after it’s opening weekend.
The White Tiger actually got a Netflix datecdote with an estimated 27 million global viewers in the first four weeks. With presumably 1-2 million or so viewers in the US—dividing the two hour run time with a 70% watch rate—this likely shows that the film under-indexed in US viewing, as most intentional titles do.

[Yet Another Editor Note: My goal with this weekly report is to keep it to 800-1,200 words, which is short for me.]

Competition

My big question for the streaming wars this year is simple: will this fight be competitive?

Looking at the last year, you’d say it isn’t a fair fight. Netflix is far and away the biggest streamer in America, whether you measure by subscriber or by total usage. That’s why I’ll be tracking a few metrics to determine whether Netflix is pulling away from the pack, or whether the pack is catching up to Netflix.

Here are the top ten pieces of content in film or TV series by streamer going back through the last six weeks:

IMAGE 4 - Streamrs Share Top Ten

The good news if you’re not Netflix? Well, when the traditional studios went all in, they took quite a bit of market share from Netflix. Christmas was the Soul/Wonder Woman 1984 deluge, and frankly it got a lot of eyeballs to Disney+ and HBO Max.

The good news if you are Netflix? As soon as the studios stopped releasing their big guns, Netflix went back to owning the entire list. For example, in the past a show like WandaVision, with only 3 episodes generating 6.3 million hours watched, would have dropped off our radar. 

IMAGE 5 - Top 30 List

The goal for the Amazons and Disneys of the world is to move up from owning the “film” portion of this list to owning more spots on the top ten and fifteen. We’ll see if they can do it.

[Last editor note: I hope you enjoyed the first installment of the EntStrategyGuy ratings report. I’d love to hear from you on what you liked, what you didn’t and what you want more of. Thanks in advance!]

The Christmas Chronicles Was Netflix’s Most Watched Film in the US in 2020 and Other Data Thoughts from “Who Won December”

December was a big battle in the streaming wars. The Christmas Day/end of year is becoming increasingly important to the streamers since it is the last time to grab subscribers before annual reporting. This is why the latest installment of my “Who Won the Month” series at Decider may be the most important one of 2020. 

So check it out!

To keep that article flowing, I ended up cutting a few insights/thoughts from that article that still felt good enough to share. Consider this the “DVD extras” addendum to that great piece. (Seriously, read it before you continue.) 

Other Contenders That I Didn’t Mention

The biggest drawback to a word count is having to cut a few shows from contention. Last month that mainly meant some shows from the smaller streamers. CBS All-Access released their latest Stephen King thriller The Stand. (It had a peak of 9 on Google Trends.) The challenge is a word like “stand” is fairly generic, so it just may not be picked up in the Google Trends data. However, on IMDb, its ratings are 6,600, so likely it isn’t really catching on. Showtime released Your Honor, but it didn’t really budge the popularity needle.

Apple TV+ focused on kids in the holidays, airing both A Charlie Brown Christmas and Wolfwalkers. Again, I didn’t really see the Wolfwalkers trending. (Charlie Brown is too generic.)

Caveats to IMDb Data

For the first time, I compared shows using IMDb ratings data. I both want to explain how and why I used this data source and also some other insights into last month’s results.

The “why” is because I love capturing qualitative feedback on a given show or film in addition to viewership. In particular for TV, this can be somewhat of a leading indicator to forecast if subsequent seasons of a show are going to build momentum or begin to flag. This applies to TV series as well as film franchises. Especially for franchises, actually. A big marketing campaign can result in a strong opening weekend, but if the IMDb ratings are low, then eventually the series will decay in viewership. (See Fantastic Beasts or The Hobbit series for some examples.)

As for how, I tend to use both the rating itself and the number of ratings. The number of ratings is fairly correlated with viewership overall. Thus, if you don’t have viewership itself, IMDb can act as a proxy, like Google Trends. The actual rating itself (the 1-10 numbers) doesn’t account for small but well-liked films and TV series. My approach is to make a scatter plot, and see which films are in the upper right: lots of reviews and high ratings. (If you want to pay for it—and I can’t afford it—IMDb page traffic is also a good proxy.)

Now the caveat: some folks hate using IMDb ratings because online trolls have attacked certain films.

You can see this in Wonder Woman 1984. While it has nearly as many ratings as Soul, its average rating is much, much lower. Which raises the question of whether or not Wonder Woman 1984 is being intentionally dragged by trolls online. And this is the main problem with IMDb data: some folks will intentionally drag down shows for political reasons, which skew the value of this data source. 

But I won’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Because it’s the best publicly available, qualitative data set we have.

Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic are probably the next two biggest review sites, and their numbers are orders of magnitude smaller than IMDb. The caveat here, of course, is that larger sample sizes of biased data are still biased, meaning that doesn’t justify using IMDb. The problem is that for Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, their sample sizes in many cases aren’t big enough to be representative. I’ve considered using Amazon ratings, but in that case some films are available in streaming, but some are available for free and some are available for purchase. This makes ratings not apples-to-apples, and that’s before the fraud problem with Amazon ratings.  

So when I use IMDb data, I tend to accept its shortcomings and use it carefully. To start, I know IMDb tends to skew “genre” in its ratings. This means for shows like The Expanse or Wonder Woman 1984, I’d say the reviews on IMDb are relevant. Since The Expanse has done well on IMDb, that shows some genuine fan interest. For something like Bridgerton, I’m less concerned if its score is weak.

Then, I try to figure out if a given show has been dragged by potential online trolls. When they have—eg The Last Jedi, Black Panther or Captain Marvel—I just wouldn’t use those ratings. Though don’t go overboard: don’t pretend that every poorly rated film is just a victim of online trolls. Some films are bad and fans don’t like them.

For Wonder Woman 1984 specifically, while I haven’t heard of any specific campaigns, on another user review site, Rotten Tomatoes, Wonder Woman 1984 has done better than its IMDb score. This likely indicates there is some intentional downvoting, but even with that it is unlikely Wonder Woman would have been a 8.0 or higher film.

IMAGE 1 - RT vs IMDb for Wonder Woman

A score of an “8” on IMDb tends to separate the merely good from the great. Meanwhile, The Midnight Sky did poorly in both locations. So it may be widely watched, but folks didn’t really love it.

(Also, never use the Tomatometer. That has very little nuance since it simply measures “good vs bad”.)

Did Netflix Have a Good December?

Probably, but not as good as last year. If you just casually read the news, you heard a series of great Netflix reports, and you’d assume they’re crushing it again.

Fortunately, I’ve collected every Netflix datecdote over the last few years and can put those numbers in context. Here’s the last three December releases that we have datecdotes for from Netflix. (These are films released in December. I’ll look at Netflix’s entire Q4 in a future article.)

IMAGE 2 - NFLX Decembers

The best way to describe this is that Netflix’s top film and top TV show released in December both underperformed their peers who launched last year. This looks even worse in context of the growth of the service during that time frame. The key question every quarter is whether Netflix’s content can help propel growth, or merely hold subscriber counts steady. And it seems to me like Netflix held steady in December compared to 2019.

Did Disney Really Win the Month?

For the first time in December, I didn’t just declare The Mandalorian as the winner in December, I also said that Disney won the month compared to Netflix. Essentially, between Soul and The Mandalorian, Netflix didn’t have a blockbuster show that drove the same level of interest.

The counter could be: but what if you added up every new thing Netflix released? Would it pass Disney by sheer volume?

So I looked for any Netflix series that seemed to generate interest and tried to figure that out. However, even after that, Disney was still the winner:

IMAGE 3 - Google Trends Expanded Look

There is a lesson in here about content planning and “return on investment”. Essentially, Disney could match Netflix for interest with only two hit releases. Now, those two may not generate as much time on the platform as Netflix currently has (their usage is much higher), but as for keeping subscribers, Disney may be able to do that more efficiently. I say “may” because it’s not like the two pieces of content Disney made are cheap by any means. (The Mandalorian may be the most expensive show on TV until Lord of the Rings comes out.) That’s its own form of inefficiency.

This also repeats a point I constantly make about the streaming wars: the best shows aren’t a little better than other shows, but multiples better. Thus, you don’t win the streaming wars with singles and doubles, but grand slams. And in July, November and December, Disney hit a grand slam each month. And with much fewer at bats than Netflix. That is an efficient form of content spend.

November Flashback: What Can Nielsen’s Data Tell Us?

The one drawback to my “Who Won the Month” series is that Nielsen data usually isn’t ready by the time I write my initial article. (They perform better near the month they cover, so I try to write them for the last day of the month or so.) This means that we can now look back and see which calls I made in December are either confirmed or refuted by the Nielsen data. 

So let’s hold myself accountable for my calls:

– Was The Mandalorian bigger than The Queen’s Gambit? I said yes, but according to Nielsen it depends how you count. The Queen’s Gambit was able to sustain higher week to week viewing than The Mandalorian, but Mando outpaced in terms of weeks on the Nielsen top ten:

IMAGE 4 - Week by Week Nielsen Ratings

– So The Crown was big? Yeah, that’s what the Nielsen data says. However, this is partly expected because The Crown now has four seasons airing, so that’s a lot of episodes to catch up on. The limitation of Nielsen’s data is we can’t see season level viewership. (That’s right, they give us some data and I just want more!)

– Did I undersell The Christmas Chronicles? Maybe. According to Nielsen’s data through the beginning of April, The Christmas Chronicles 2 had Netflix’s biggest film launch of this year in the United States by minutes viewed through the first two weeks! (36 million hours to Extraction’s 31.6 million hours in the first two weeks.)

– Did Hulu overhype Run? I think so. Hulu went so far as to release a vague press release calling Run its best performing film launch of all time. The problem for my system is that “run” is so vague that it didn’t register on Google Trends. So I said we’d wait for the Nielsen data to make a final call. When Nielsen released its weekly ratings for Thanksgiving weekend, Run didn’t make the cut.

Nielsen 2020.11.23 copy

– What about The Flight Attendant? At first, I was tempted to say that this HBO Max drama underperformed as well, because it didn’t make the Nielsen Top Ten. Then folks on Twitter (helpfully) pointed out that Nielsen isn’t tracking HBO Max yet. So we don’t know. Though, given that they only track services with a significant volume of regular viewers, likely The Flight Attendant wouldn’t have made the Nielsen top ten either.

My Favorite Ratings Tweet of the Quarter

This comes from Michael Mulvihill, who analyzes ratings for Fox Sports:

I would add, while he’s comparing 60 Minutes viewership to The Queen’s Gambit viewing, but that’s US only numbers compared to Netflix’s global viewership.  (Correction: I initially wrote NFL instead of 60 Minutes. As I’m supposed to say, I regret the error.)