Tag: Decider

Read My Latest Guest Articles at Whats On Netflix and Decider

In lieu of a big article this week—I was a pinch busy on some other projects and I’m also digging through a lot of viewership data from Nielsen—I wanted to shout out two guest articles that I never linked to on this website.

– First, I wrote about Netflix’s viewership over the summer at What’s On Netflix. I also continue to think Netflix is leaving “awareness” on the table by not releasing one series per quarter as a weekly series.

– Second, I wrote my extended thoughts on Quibi’s demise in this obituary for Decider. As always, the key art is tremendous at Decider.

Read My Latest at Decider “‘Hamilton’ vs. ‘The Old Guard’ vs. ‘Greyhound’ vs. ‘Palm Springs’: Which Movie Was Straight-To-Streaming Champion of July?”

July was a big month for straight-to-streaming films. With theaters still shut down in the United States (and in large parts of the world) streaming is where the action is.

A couple of weeks back, I started dabbling with Google Trends to look at the big streaming movies in July for my weekly column. One thing led to another…and I ended up writing nearly 2,000 words on it.

I pitched it to Decider and they just published it. So if you want to know:

– What was the most popular film globally in July on streaming…
– Or how well Hulu and Apple TV+ stacked up against Netflix…
– Or how well Netflix’s action films are doing…
– And who–if anyone–is making money on these films?

Then check out my latest. I give winners and losers and talk about what we can divine of the economics in this one.

And the winners—specifically how much they won by—may shock you.

Cut for Room Thought: Since Tenet is Delayed

…should Warner Bros put it straight to HBO Max?

Hmmm. 

That’s essentially the question I’ve been asking in my long series, “Should your film go straight to Netflix?”. We’re in very different times than 2019, where I would have said no way. 80% of me still says, “No way.” (And it sounds like Warner Media agrees, based on their earnings call.) Potentially grossing a billion dollars at the box office is worth the risks. And then the film will be on HBO/HBO Max anyways.

That said…

…HBO Max needs something. They’re losing the Harry Potter films in August! The new Game of Thrones series is delayed for who knows how long. Is it worth taking a hit on Tenet to drive new subscribers to HBO Max in the US? 20% of me could see that argument. 

Read My Latest at Decider: “To Binge or Not to Binge: Who Won the Battle Between Game of Thrones and Stranger Things”?

I just had a guest article published at Decider, this time asking, “Should Netflix keep binge releasing all its series?” My conclusion: not all of them. Essentially, Netflix is leaving “awareness” on the table.

Take a read and share on social media. Also, shout out to Alan Wolk, who tackled this back in the spring with Game of Thrones. I’d been toying with this idea when I read his take, and tried to update his thesis with the Stranger Things data point.

Like all long articles I write, I had two ideas that didn’t fit in the main piece. Here they are.

Has Hulu’s Weekly Release Helped?

It’s tough to say. Here’s the brutal case against it:

Image 8 - G Trends with Handmaids

Frankly, The Handmaid’s Tale is their most popular series and it is clearly the lightweight to the Game of Thrones/Stranger Things heavyweights. So let’s drop those two, and throw it up against some similar competition.

Chart 7 - Google Trends TV.png

That’s better, and you can see the same weekly interest boost that Big Little Lies and Game of Thrones had, just on a different scale. Instead, I still think that Hulu is just much, much smaller than Netflix right now. (Which, yes, isn’t breaking news.) Or about where HBO is, given that the interest almost matches something like Big Little Lies.

The counter to the binge model, though, could also be this chart. If The Handmaid’s Tale had dropped on one weekend, would Hulu even have a chance to keep it in the conversation? I don’t think so. In this case, Hulu made the right decision. This naturally leads us to ask about not just the current streamers, but the future streamers.

What Should the DAWN (Disney, Apple, Warner and NBC) Streamers Do?

Well, it depends on who you are and what your business model is, but overall, I’d be flexible. If you have a show with tons of pent up demand—like the upcoming Lord of the Rings on Amazon—consider weekly releases for the first season. Ride the potential enthusiasm to help launch weeks worth of content.

For the rest, I’d consider what type of content you have. Disney has a lot of shows that will benefit from weekly releases. Star Wars or Marvel TV series are guaranteed to drive conversation on comics and sci-f (fanboy) websites and podcasts. Weekly releases will amplify their reach from season one. For other dramas? Maybe not.

For HBO Max, they know all about launching prestige television, but HBO is about to quickly run out of days to launch all their content. In that sense, having more binge releases may make sense. Though again many of their fantasy or superhero series are destined to be stars in recap culture. For NBC, I still know so little about their platform that I won’t even speculate.

Apple may benefit the most from the binge release model. They are buying a ton of content and needs lots of buzz right from launch. Moreover, they aren’t trying to build a streaming platform per se, but a TV platform of which the content serves a subsidiary purpose. They should probably consider an approach closer to launching all series on binge, then rolling out the hits weekly for season twos.

Fine, What About Netflix?

If I were Netflix, I think they are missing something essential about how the social conversation drives a show to new heights. Right now, they have one potential mega-hit in Stranger Things. Even if they want to keep binge releases for all ten thousand other releases, they should consider carving exceptions for their biggest hits. A Stranger Things weekly release likely would have brought in new customer which they, um, need nowadays.

The key boils down to flexibility and being innovative. Innovation is not saying “Never, never, never.” It’s about understanding your customers, your business models and the attention landscape to maximize your return on assets.