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Today, it’s time for another update on streaming renewals and cancellations, plus—since the Upfronts took place a few weeks back—my yearly update on the upcoming broadcast season.
Historically, this has been one of my most popular series, but it can be difficult to transform these articles into anything other than dry lists. Lists can be so boring. So I want each update to have a hook, make a clear argument, or tell a story.
Two weeks ago, I didn’t have that hook. Then, in the last two weeks, Netflix said, “Here, EntStrategyGuy, here’s your hook.” And boy howdy, this issue will be spicy.
All that, plus we need to revisit the big story from last broadcast season (namely whether NBC’s big bet on basketball paid off), another “quiet cancellation” of a buzzy TV show, what TV shows the streamers are renewing early (and why I like some of these calls), some questionable Netflix renewals, Hulu doubling down on their least productive influencer-star, and a whole lot more.
Let’s dive right in!
Shows That Are Ending After Long(?) Runs/Popular Shows That Got Cancelled
Sometimes you look for the story and sometimes, the story finds you. Since I last updated my “Renewals and Cancellations” report, the story found me:
Namely, a bunch of very successful, mostly long-running Netflix shows are coming to an end.
In particular…
- Emily in Paris will end after its sixth season. Huh?
- The Lincoln Lawyer will end after its fifth season. Seriously, huh??
- The Night Agent is ending after its fourth season. Triple huh?!?!?!?!?
In this case, a few websites ran stories about “hit shows being cancelled” and, historically, I’ve mocked headlines like this—because they call TV shows “hits” even if they were anything but!—but in this case, those headlines are absolutely warranted. All three of these shows were (are?) legit hit shows! If anything, there should have been more headlines about hit shows being cancelled!
Seriously, what are the biggest Netflix shows of all time and how many have ended since last year? Off the top of my head, Squid Game and You ended last June, Stranger Things ended in December, Beauty in Black and Outer Banks will end later this year, and now The Lincoln Lawyer, The Night Agent, and Emily in Paris are coming to an end next year.
But I’m a data guy, so I can put actual numbers to this trend.
First, if you look at the biggest shows since 2020 (roughly what I call the Streaming Ratings Era), Netflix has lost four of its top fourteen shows in the last year: #1: Stranger Things, #7: Squid Game, #11: The Lincoln Lawyer, and #14: The Night Agent.
(Note: In this look, I included scripted and unscripted shows, cutting the list off at any show over 400 million total hours—adding all the Monster anthology series together—even though that slightly weakens my data case. But it’s a more honest look!)
Six years is a long time in the TV world, and you can expect a lot of changeover. But if you zoom in a bit, the situation looks even worse. If you just look at scripted shows since 2023…
Seven of Netflix’s top twelve shows aren’t continuing on, including Outer Banks, which will conclude after its next season.
I’m out of the “Is Netflix waning?” prediction game (predict their demise at your own peril) but there are warning signs that trouble could be brewing. (Remember when Disney dominated the 2010s? Or CBS the 2000s? Or NBC the 1990s?) As I shared in the last Streaming Ratings Report, Netflix’s hit shows in Q2 leave a lot to be desired compared to Q1:
And as I wrote last summer—and need to update soon—their share of the streaming top tens has been going down:
Still, Netflix’s churn rate and financials remain fantastic. Netflix continues to license TV shows and movies from other companies—like Sony, Warner Bros, Universal, and some Disney—which has been Netflix’s secret weapon since the early 2010s when they made very smart deals with Starz and Disney. Those smart library acquisitions are still working, and I’m guessing they will keep working in the future.
To close out this section on “long-running shows coming to an end”, I should mention that Euphoria is coming to an end. This isn’t technically a “long-running” show in terms of seasons (just three) but years on the air (seven). And after Beef’s second-season stumbles—see below—A24 is losing their only hit TV show.And two shows with minimal viewership data, since these shows aren’t eligible for most viewership charts, are ending: MGM+’s From will end after its fifth season, and The Oval, a Tyler Perry/BET+ show that is now on Paramount+/BET+ (and has three seasons available on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock and YouTube) will be ending after its seventh season.
Popular Shows That Got Renewed
Okay, let’s get positive. Popular shows that got renewed! And we start with two esoteric choices from yours truly…
HBO renewed their Harry Potter reboot for a second season. I know, I’m calling a show “popular” that hasn’t even come out yet, but come on. It’s Harry Potter. We know it’s going to be popular. I’ll say the same thing about Netflix’s Little House on the Prairie reboot, which also got a second season before the first season started streaming.
For big budget shows like this, if ordering a second season early helps get a show’s second season out quicker—preferably within a year or so—that’s smart. This choice can be risky, but I think the risk is so low on both of these pieces of IP that these early renewals are well worth it. At the very least—and I have some experience with this—I’d order a second season’s worth of scripts before any major show premieres.
Similarly, Paramount+ renewed The Madison for a third season ahead of its second season, which, according to Deadline, “was never officially announced, it was quietly filmed last fall and is in the can.” Since The Madison did “very well” (according to me) and had the biggest launch for a Taylor Sheridan show at the time (it’s now second best opening after Dutton Ranch), this makes sense.
Conversely, Netflix ordered a fourth season of My Life With the Walter Boys before the third season came out. This show doesn’t smash the ratings charts, so this early renewal has a pinch more risk, but My Life With the Walter Boys appears to be less expensive than most scripted shows.
As for more traditional renewals…
- Prime Video renewed Reacher for a fifth season, and that show is a mega-hit:
- Netflix renewed Love is Blind for an eleventh season, another no-brainer:
- Same goes for Netflix’s Love on the Spectrum U.S., a solid performing show that also looks affordable. Similarly, Netflix’s Age of Attraction got 16.1 million hours over two weeks, which is solid for a reality show.
- HBO renewed Rooster for a second season, and that show wasn’t a mega-hit, but it lasted for weeks on the Samba TV charts.
- Peacock is bringing back The Burbs for a second season. The first grabbed 11.9 million hours according to Luminate (but didn’t make Nielsen). Not huge, but that makes it a hit for Peacock.
- Finally, Paramount/Nickelodeon renewed Paw Patrol and Rubble and Crew. This franchise remains very popular, as Emily Horgan often shows. As a reminder, here’s a chart Emily made comparing Paw Patrol to the top show, Bluey:
Unsurprising Cancellations
Overall, there haven’t been too many cancellations over the last month or so. That said, another streaming show has been cancelled without, you know, actually being cancelled.
We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out…
- The most recent show to get “quiet cancelled”…
- Whether NBC’s big bet on basketball paid off…
- Animated shows getting early renewals…
- And a cable show that got renewed for three new seasons before its latest season had its audience go down by over 40%…
- Some Netflix bubble shows…
- And a lot more…
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