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Wow, I won’t lie:
I really wanted to use “everyone” in today’s headline.
Specifically, I wanted to go with the classic “The One Thing Everyone is Missing About Hulu’s The Secret Lives…” but I just can’t! It’s not accurate. Sure, I have an observation that I haven’t seen anyone else write about yet, but that doesn’t mean I’m the only person who noticed it!
But still, I have a hot take.
Today, we’re doing another installment of “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals” update. This is my regular recap of the last two to three months of streaming TV show orders news, where I review what streaming ratings data can tell us about these renewal or cancellation decisions. (I saved my update on broadcast and cable channel shows for the next installment.)
If you’re new to the newsletter—and a lot of you are—two quick reminders:
- Streaming viewership data is a very strong predictor of what shows get renewed and what shows get cancelled. It’s not perfect (what is?) but the viewership data is strongly correlated with the future of these shows, paired with the show’s budget, of course. And if anyone tries to tell you that the streamers have super complicated metrics and algorithms that simple-minded creatives can’t possibly understand, they’re trying to sell you something. No, scratch that; it’s the opposite: they’re trying to underpay you. Don’t let them! (And if you’re in the media, don’t help the streamers underpay talent!)
- Second, many, many (too many?) streaming shows get automatic two season orders to start. This comes up a lot today. I don’t want to say that no shows get actual renewals for their second seasons, but many/most renewal announcements for second seasons are more PR spin than reality. Most shows should just get announced as two season orders, but some streamers like the positive PR from a “renewal” decision.
Without any more preamble, let’s dive right in! We have a lot to cover including…
…how Hulu is failing to build franchises…
…two to three Hulu shows are ending early…
…a number of shows posting season-over-season declines…
…whether or not streamers should renew shows early…
…every streamer renewed a big hit show in the last three months except for one…
…which $150 million show should have been cancelled (and whose creator is upset by it)…
…ten charts or graphs laying out the data…
…and a whole lot more.
And unlike normal, we’re starting with shows that got unordered, because I’ve got a rant to deliver…
Un-Orders: Not Only Does Hulu Have a PR Headache, They Are Also Making a Big Strategy Mistake
Don’t get me wrong: the Taylor Frankie domestic assault story is a huge scandal. It is inexcusable that Hulu/Disney knew about Taylor Frankie’s domestic violence issues (and a plea deal) in 2023 and 2024 and not only kept her on as a cast member, but moved her to a different franchise (The Bachelorette) as well.
In contrast, Bravo has provided a blueprint for what to do when the reality stars on its shows get in trouble: talk about it (a lot, on the show itself, then the show’s reunion specials, then on Watch What Happens Live) then boot the offending cast member from the franchise. Heck, one of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake City is literally in jail for fraud. But she’s not on the show anymore! The Valley parted ways with Jax Taylor after his plethora of issues. The thing is, Bravo’s franchises are stronger than any one single star. The crown jewel of the franchise, The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, regularly changes cast members and the show continues on.
So set aside that very real, very concerning scandal. Because Hulu also has very real strategy issues in addition to the ethical concerns.
The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives premiered over eighteen months ago and immediately became a hit show. Six months later, the second season made the charts. Then, six months ago, the third season made the charts. Yet Hulu just announced its first spinoff in the last couple of weeks. And by spinoff, I mean The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives: The OC featuring one pre-existing cast member.
It’s worth remembering just how fast Bravo capitalized on their success back in the 2000s. Within three years of the premiere of The Real Housewives of the OC (in Mar-2006), Bravo had announced and released three new Real Housewives shows: The Real Housewives of New York City in Sep-2007, The Real Housewives of Atlanta in Jun-2008, and The Real Housewives of New Jersey in May-2009. I doubt Hulu will have launched three new “Secret Lives…” shows by next year.
I don’t want to oversimplify the process—it’s not like reality shows have scripts to write, but casting can be difficult, as Disney is now well aware—but Hulu should be moving faster.
And they shouldn’t stick to the “Mormon Wives” part of the title, but the “Secret Lives…” part! Create your own celeb-reality universe with subcultures across the US!
It’s not like Disney doesn’t know the value of successful IP! Every other part of the Disney empire suffers from an over-reliance on IP. From theme parks to films, the entire company seems scared to death of making something new or original. (For the record, I’m team you need a blend of new IP, old IP, and originals.)
But not Hulu! They want to keep making big, buzzy, usually expensive shows geared to win Emmys. They’ve been using this strategy for over half a decade now, it’s still not working, and yet they don’t appear to be changing course anytime soon. How many cheap celeb-reality shows could you make for the cost of one prestige FX show? And those shows don’t end after three or four seasons if the showrunner decides they’re finished telling the story.
Instead of trying to be HBO, try to be Bravo. Bravo is so successful, it’s the only thing that NBCUniversal kept from their cable channels portfolio after spinning off Versant. For a reason. Andy Cohen is a genius, anchoring a nightly talk show around the Bravo line-up, hosting conventions, and more; it’s shocking no one else in town has tried to copy this blueprint. Bravo! [Pun intended.]
As we’ll see throughout this article, in the last three months, Hulu has announced that it’s losing two or three other hit shows (depending on whether one show counts as a hit or not). The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives offers them a chance to build a franchise, and the execs there haven’t taken advantage of it yet.
Shows That Are Ending After Long Runs
Oddly enough, normally, shows come to an end after nice long runs, supported by strong viewership. But not with the shows we’re looking at today, since many of these shows’ viewership are declining or was never all that great.
First off, let’s keep the Hulu theme going! Turns out, in addition to losing this season of The Bachelorette and possibly the next season of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, Hulu’s losing another one of its (precious few) hit shows later this summer: The Bear. This show has been on a bit of a decline in recent seasons, and it’s ending this summer after five seasons.
Sure, the creatives and executives said that the story “reached its natural conclusion” but that’s the Hollywood equivalent of politicians “spending more time with their families”. Hit shows didn’t end after five seasons back in the day. At the very least, Hulu/FX could have greenlit a spinoff or something. (This show is about launching and running restaurants, a concept that can repeat in different cities, settings, and what have you.) It’s not like Hulu is just overflowing with hit shows! And that’s not their only hit show that’s coming to an end!
Next up, as I wrote before, Paramount+’s Mayor of Kingstown is coming to an end after its fifth season. Sure enough, its viewership too has been on the decline. Here’s the Nielsen data, where season four only made the charts for one week:
Similarly, HBO’s House of the Dragon will end with its fourth season in 2028. (Its third comes out this summer.) The second season did well, despite some initial headlines suggesting otherwise, as you can see in the Nielsen weekly data:
And HBO/the BBC’s Industry is also ending after its fifth season. According to HBO datecdotes, the last season premiered to 800K viewers in the first three days, and by episode six it had gotten to 1.1 million viewers. But those are still very small numbers compared to HBO’s big hits like It: Welcome to Derry, The Pitt or A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.
Apple TV’s For All Mankind is ending after its sixth season. This show has never made the Nielsen (only two seasons have been eligible) or Samba TV (only one season has been eligible) charts, so it’s hard to say if its viewership has gone up or down.
Popular Shows That Got Renewed
Okay, more bad news for Hulu. Hulu wisely renewed Paradise, a genuine hit show, for its third and final (emphasis on “final”) season; I just wrote about growing its audience season-over-season:
Listen, I get letting smart creatives determine when their shows will conclude, but this doesn’t happen to hit procedurals like High Potential.
Next, Netflix renewed a number of their hit shows:
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