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Sometimes, I wish I could let myself go wild rhetorically.
Specifically, I would love to write crazy, hyperbolic headlines. I pull a lot of data cuts every week, and it would be very easy to say, “Oh man, look at this data…can you believe this?!?!? This changes everything!!!”
This sort of hyperbolic conclusion would help my writing reach more people. Virality is real, and the more hyperbolic the headline, frankly, the easier it is to make a piece go viral.
Unfortunately, reality is nuanced and caveated to hell. And I just don’t feel like I can do my job well if I don’t provide you, the reader, those caveats. Sigh.
Today, I (finally) took the time to take a step back and look at some long term trends—which all journalists, yours truly included, should do more often!—for one key metric: Netflix’s share of titles in Nielsen’s top ten originals chart in America.
Since I haven’t seen anyone else uncover this trend, in a way, I’m breaking news, but how I break that news could be hyperbolic and one-sided, or I could present it moderately, with a host of nuance and caveats. Guess which way I went?
Now, these caveats may seem like they undermine my conclusion, but I don’t see it that way. I think diving into the data—deeper and more nuanced than other outlets provide—helps my readers understand the business and data at a deeper level. Moreover, I think this builds trust with the audience.
So, without further ado, the answer to “Are the streaming wars getting more competitive?”
The Data – Share of Nielsen Top Ten Originals Chart Over Time
I was inspired to write today’s article after I noticed that Nielsen’s Top Ten lists were getting increasingly competitive this year. For example, the week of 26-Mar, Netflix only had four slots in the top ten:
(This isn’t actually Netflix’s nadir, as Netflix had one week last summer where they only had three originals in the top ten.)
So I pulled the data by week, and, voilà, you can see the share of Netflix in the Nielsen top ten has shrunk over time:
Here’s the “Data 5Ws” for that look and most of today’s article:
Who: Nielsen
What: Nielsen Top Ten Streaming Originals
Metric: Count of Titles
Where: US
When: 2021 to Present
When (interval): By Week
Now, that stacked bar chart can look a little busy. (I removed the gaps so it looks continuous.) So here’s the higher-level look, the share by month:
That’s the same data, just different intervals, weekly versus monthly, which makes the change even clearer. Finally, let’s look at it by year:
Three different time periods, but the data is all the same. And mostly the same conclusion: Netflix’s share of Nielsen’s weekly Top Ten charts is decreasing over time, while multiple other streamers seem to be gaining. As of 2021, Netflix owned 80% of the top ten lists, and that’s down to just 52% so far this year, a decline of 28%.
The trend isn’t smooth—few economic trends are smooth!—but real.
Of course, you could pull the data in different ways and come to slightly different conclusions.
Other Ways to Look at This Data
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