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Normally, I just sneak a quick look at broadcast and cable TV show renewals into my regular Renewals and Cancellations update, without saying much else, but I’m not doing that this year. Nah, after last week’s upfronts, the broadcast channels get their own article.
Why? Because this year’s fall line-up is absolutely fascinating. I hate the old journalistic cliche of “seismic shift”, but for at least two channels, it feels like that hypothetical seismic shift happened. Two broadcast channels are making smart scripted content bets, and two broadcast channels are making a very risky bet/sort of getting out of scripted television. All that, plus a look at other cable/broadcast TV show renewals, the big kids show news from two days ago, and a bunch of updates on shows switching streamers or content being removed.
Let’s dive right in.
Broadcast Renewals and Cancellations
Like I just said, I normally don’t cover each broadcast channel individually, but this year, I have a take on each one’s strategy going forward.
NBC – Making a Big, Risky Bet on Basketball
Scripted Shows: 10
Coming Back: 3 Chicago shows, 2 Law & Order shows, Happy’s Place, St. Denis Medical, Brilliant Minds, The Hunting Party
New Shows: The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Cancelled Shows: Found, Suits L.A., The Irrational, Lopez vs Lopez, Night Court, Grosse Point Garden Society TBD
NBC is making a big, big bet on the NBA, dedicating their Tuesday nights to basketball, and after the NFL ends, eight more Sunday night games, not to mention Peacock exclusive games. To do so, they’ve decimated their scripted programming, but don’t take my word for it; Deadline basically wrote the same thing in five different articles, some variation of “the network has to make room for about 180 hours of expensive primetime NBA programming next season.”
For context, shows like The Irrational, Lopez vs Lopez and Night Court’s ratings had dropped down to about 2 million per episode. (Which doesn’t include the streaming ratings, which can double a show’s viewership.) On ABC, the NBA averaged 2.7 million viewers per game, so NBC is betting that the NBA (and sports in general) can get more viewers than their scripted programming.
That said, this is a risky bet and I don’t like it for a few reasons:
- The NBA is about to have 5-6 national TV games each week—sometimes 7—with 3 to 5 on broadcast channels. Will the product get diluted? Will non-super fans actually tune in? Or, as anyone who follows basketball knows, how many good games are there each week?
- The NBA’s ratings have been declining for years. They should get a boost from increased exposure on broadcast channels, but not that much. After all…
- Are broadcast ratings declining because the cable bundle is declining? If so, will basketball alone keep users signed up?
- NBC is down to just ten-ish scripted shows. They don’t even have all that many unscripted shows, mainly just The Voice and a new show, On Brand with Jimmy Fallon.
- A decade ago, they had twenty or so scripted shows. Two decades ago, thirty. Why? Because of streaming.
- But while their streamer, Peacock, is still making scripted shows, it’s not making hit scripted shows, as I just wrote yesterday.
NBC is, more and more, getting out of the scripted content business, but Peacock isn’t making up the difference, so where is NBCUniversal going to find their future scripted hit TV shows?
For the $2.5 billion NBCUniversal is paying the NBA, not including production costs, NBC could have produced 500 $5 million TV show episodes, or 25 seasons of 20-episode TV shows. And since it’s a ten year contract, it’s like NBC has greenlit those shows for the next ten years.
I can’t wait to see the ratings next year.
ABC: Taking a Big Bet on Unscripted Television
We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out…
- Why ABC is in a better position than NBC, but I still have concerns…
- The niche genre Fox has fully committed to…
- What broadcast genre is still doing well…
- CBS taking a different strategy than everyone else…
- And a lot more…
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