(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.)
When I research and write up my data deep dives, I love slicing the data as many ways as possible. Frankly, I don’t have a choice. If you only look at one data cut, you might miss something, some crucial variable you didn’t think of. And for my readers, if I’m going to prove a robust thesis, I need to present the data as many ways as I can, even if some of the data cuts might hurt my argument.
But no matter how many ways I slice the data, there are always more ways that I could have sliced said data, and often, people who disagree with me will bring up some unknown variable and ask, “What about X factor? I’d bet that that disproves your analysis.” And usually, that X factor isn’t public knowledge, so I can’t rebut it.
Call it the “What About This? Fallacy”.
Last month, after I wrote about Formula 1’s dismal viewership, I actually got two versions of this rebuttal. First, people asked me, “Have you considered that Formula 1 fans are more valuable/profitable than WNBA fans?” Honestly, I don’t want to touch that rhetorical landmine over gender and income/wealth, but I will say that, if most Formula 1 fans are die hard sports fans who are already watching ESPN, and WNBA fans are mostly new-ish ESPN viewers, well, then the WNBA fans probably are more valuable. (And the WNBA has data that shows exactly.)
The other counter-argument I was, “Well, of course the viewership is flat. Most people watch Formula 1 races on Formula 1’s app.” Unfortunately, I don’t have any data on that, and Formula 1 hasn’t announced subscription numbers for their F1 TV service. But that’s all besides the point: it doesn’t actually refute the thesis of the article, which was that ESPN should pay less for their media rights, and if viewers aren’t watching races on ESPN, Disney doesn’t want to pay more for those rights.
But I first noticed this years ago, writing about streaming viewership. I’d mention that a show didn’t get great ratings, and the response (usually from fans of that show) was, “Well, what about viewership on cellphones or tablets?” Of course, I didn’t have that data, so I couldn’t rebut it. (Netflix just announced that 70% of their viewership happens on television, but doesn’t break out data on individual shows.) No show represented this better than Heartstopper, since many fans would tell me that if I had the mobile viewing figures, then I’d see how big it is.
Well, I have an update on that show today.
As a reminder, this update is as comprehensive a compendium of every streaming show that got renewed or cancelled in the last three months that I can make, using multiple data sources to find every public announcement.
But it’s also chock full of strategic takeaways and interesting insights, like which two streamers are struggling, what new tactic the streamers are using to get shows out on time, which “hit shows” got cancelled, another argument that “Nu-Hollywood” makes just as many mistakes as old Hollywood, and more, so let’s dive right in.
Popular Shows That Got Renewed
The theme of the renewals over the last three months is, “Man, our hit shows need to come out sooner.”
First off, AMC renewed Dark Winds for a fourth season, before the third season came out. This show really popped on Netflix—after AMC sent twelve of their shows over there all on the same day last fall—grabbing 15.5 and 14.8 million hours in two weeks, a terrific showing for a second-run show. I like this burgeoning business model for mini-majors like this, to profit twice off the first show, first on their platform, and then in a second window. (Almost like syndication. Hmmm…)
HBO smartly renewed The Last of Us—winner for biggest streaming show in 2023—the week before its second season came out. And The Pitt got a very early renewal; it’s going to be coming out within a year of its last season. (I’ll be writing more on this show soon, but it did well.) Paramount+ renewed Criminal Minds, er, Criminal Minds: Evolution for its 19th, er, 4th season before the latest season premiered. It’s on the acquired charts, but it saw a bump last time new episodes came out. Hulu renewed Paradise for a second season mid-run as well, which out-competed Shōgun.
Even Netflix is renewing shows early. The Diplomat got renewed ahead of its third season premiere this fall. (The last season did well for Netflix, but it wasn’t a super star. At least it’s coming out yearly.) Bridgerton got another extension, but its fourth season isn’t coming out until next year. My Life With the Walter Boys lasted on the charts for six weeks, getting 64.9 million hours, but it’s been over 18 months since the first season came out, which is why it got an early S3 renewal.
Prime Video renewed Fallout for a third season—it was the best new show of the year in 2024—well ahead of its second season’s December premiere.
Disney+ did the same with Percy Jackson—which stayed on the charts for a while—ordering its third season now, ahead of its December premiere. Each show (a big hit for each streamer) is likely coming out in December because the holidays are one of the biggest viewership periods of the year.
These shows are getting renewed early to try to solve the issue of really looooong delays between seasons (over 21 months for Fallout and two years for Percy Jackson, The Last of Us, and Bridgerton, respectively) for big budget genre shows like this. Some of this is driven by the shows themselves, due to their large budgets and/or special effects, and some of it was caused by one-off events, like Covid-19 and the strikes, but some of it is also on the streamers themselves for not hitting smart production timelines.
But getting shows out on a yearly schedule matters. If Game of Thrones could do it, everyone can. Yeah, it’s not a no-risk proposition to renew (VFX-laden/costly) freshman shows for two seasons (viewership often falls from a first season to a second, even for hit shows), but it’s the smart call nevertheless.
Speaking of long gaps between seasons, Apple TV+ finally finagled a fourth season of Ted Lasso. That show is possibly the most successful streaming comedy of all time, winning the year for total minutes in 2023. And now it might set the record for the longest gaps between seasons in streaming history. (I might have to look this up, but I think The Handmaid’s Tale or Severance may take the crown right now.) Speaking of, Apple TV+ also renewed Severance, a viewership juggernaut for them, for a third season, and hopefully, viewers don’t have to wait another three years for a third season.
Paramount+ renewed Landman for a second season in March (well after the show ended) and renewed Tulsa King for its third season, though production is already underway on that third season. I don’t need to tell you that Landman got huge ratings, but Tulsa King was also Paramount+’s biggest show at the time it came out. (Taylor Sheridan gets lots of TV shows out very quickly, which is why he was my showrunner of the year in 2024.)
Netflix’s Quarterback is coming back after letting receivers take the focus last summer. Netflix also renewed basketball comedy, Running Point, for a second season (Will it hold onto its audience? Winning Time did not…), and Sweet Magnolias for a fifth season, which did okay last go around. Netflix also renewed Love on the Spectrum, which is doing very, very well for them.
When I first compiled this list, Netflix had only renewed three no-brainer hit shows in the last three months. At first, this seemed pretty paltry (for Netflix), then, last week, during their Upfronts, they announced eight more renewals, including the extra Bridgerton seasons, The Diplomat, and My Life with the Walter Boys. (And five more shows we’ll cover later.)
Still, Netflix had a much spottier last three months than they usually have, as we’ll see in the next few sections, with more bubble shows, cancellations, and questionable calls than I’ve ever seen before.
But two other streamers are in much worse shape…
Unsurprising Cancellations
We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out…
- …what streamer didn’t have a hit show renewal, but did have two worrying cancellations…
- What athlete’s show just got cancelled…
- What streamer had a ton of flops get cancelled in the last three months…
- What “hit shows” got cancelled…
- What the Beast Games renewal means for Prime Video…
- A rebuttal to the “the traditional Hollywood studios don’t know what they’re doing”…
- And a lot more…
…please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you’d like to read more about why you should subscribe, please read this article about the Streaming Ratings Report, why it matters, why you need it, and why we cover streaming ratings best.
