(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.)
I can imagine some readers, media industry professionals, or even just entertainment industry news consumers saying to themselves, two weeks post-Warner Bros.-sale announcement, “No, seriously, can I read something that isn’t about the Warner Bros. sale?”
Fair enough!
That’s why I like writing the weekly Streaming Ratings Report and semi-regular columns like this one looking at “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals” because it means I don’t have to write about the latest news of the week. I can step back, look at every streamer and every show they release, and take in a wider view of the media ecosystem.
I won’t lie, though: I wanted to make some grand statement about why Netflix wants to buy Warner Bros., but frankly, the sample size was so small; it didn’t feel statistically significant. Both HBO and Netflix renewed five shows, while Netflix cancelled eight shows and HBO didn’t cancel any, so I’m not sure you can take away anything from that.
In reality, other streaming wars subplots are way more interesting, like “Why do unpopular shows get renewed?” (I’ll offer five explanations below.) Is this new streaming deal between Peacock and Apple actually meaningful? (Not really.) Is Hulu finally on a run of hit shows? (Maybe!) Is Prime Video not? (Definitely.) And did that Netflix show get cancelled because of politics or because of its viewership? (Regular readers already know the answer.) And how come no one is complaining about three other popular shows that got cancelled?
If you’re new to this newsletter, here’s how my “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals” update works…
- This article tracks all the renewal and cancellation announcements that I can find, using three different sources.
- I do my best to be as thorough as possible, but I can’t guarantee that this list is comprehensive. (But it’s as accurate as anything you’ll read…especially since the streamers will cancel shows without telling anyone.)
- I focus on the eight major streamers (Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, Prime Video, Apple TV, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+), some smaller streamers (like AMC+ and MGM+), the broadcast channels, and some major cable channels.
- Then I share what the streaming viewership data says about that title that got cancelled or renewed, grouping them into “Popular Shows That Got Renewed” “Unpopular Shows That Got Cancelled” and so on.
- Streaming ratings are very, very predictive of the future of TV shows. In today’s article, there were three surprising cancellations, but otherwise, popular TV shows get renewed, unpopular shows get cancelled, and some shows are “on the bubble”.
- Contra much conventional wisdom in Hollywood, total hours viewed will get you 80-90% of the way to predicting what shows get cancelled or renewed. I’ve even found the place where many Netflix shows get cancelled or renewed, which I dubbed “The Obliterated Line”. Many streamers want you to think that their internal data is too complex to understand, but it’s not. (This is great news for talent, and I wish more people knew this.)
- Many unpopular streaming shows do get renewed, which I’ve written about before.
- Inevitably, I start writing this article a few days before it goes out—like Nellie Andreeva reporting on Boots getting the boot two days ago—and then some huge show will get cancelled or renewed the same day. Apologies if that happens again!
If you’d like to read past articles, you can find my first report here (in which I compared TV shows to NBA players Bill Simmons-style), the May-2023 edition here, the Sep-2023 edition here (in which I first look at and explain confusing cancellation decisions), the Nov-2023 edition here, and the Jan-2024 edition here. I introduced the “Obliterated Line” in the May-2024 edition, I looked at Prime Video secretly cancelling one of their biggest shows in the July-2024 edition, the Oct-2024 edition is here, and I asked whether the old-school studios even know what they’re doing in the Feb-2025 edition. You can find the May-2025 edition here, plus I took a look at broadcast channels forgoing scripted television for sports in the first part of May-2025 edition and looked at the streamers in part two, and I revisited the “Obliterated Line” here and took a look at every other streamer here in Sep-2025.
Popular Shows That Got Renewed
We start where we always start: popular shows that got renewed. And leading us off is HBO, which renewed…
- …Task (It did okay this fall, making Samba TV for one week, and getting strong datecdotes from HBO, but it missed Nielsen.)
- …I Love L.A. (It made Samba TV, HBO said it averaged two million viewers.)
- …The Chair Company (HBO’s biggest new comedy since 2020, 1.3 million viewers for episode five according to HBO, and it made the Samba TV top ten, though it never made Nielsen.)
- …Heated Rivalry (We’re still waiting on Nielsen’s viewership figures; this show seems buzzy, but it hasn’t made Luminate or Samba TV, and is just third on HBO Max’s top ten lists, which does not mean it’s a hit show.)
HBO also pre-renewed House of the Dragon (one of their biggest shows) for a fourth season and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms for a second season ahead of its premiere. I should mention that I’ve learned that this latter show does NOT have a big budget (for a fantasy show), though I said otherwise at the end of a recent Streaming Ratings Report.
If you want to know why Netflix and Paramount Skydance want to acquire Warner Bros., this is one reason why: they have an excellent hit rate. HBO makes a lot of shows that viewers love without making as many misses.
Meanwhile, Paramount+ renewed Landman for a third season (which I’ll be covering in Friday’s issue, but spoiler alert: it’s still a hit) and Lioness for a third season (the last season did well).
If you want to know why NBCUniversal poached Taylor Sheridan from Paramount-Skydance, this is why: he makes a ton of hit shows!
Hulu renewed a bunch of shows, including The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives (analysis coming Friday, but this is a hit show and we know that it made the Luminate charts), Alien: Earth (did solid, making the Nielsen charts twice), Only Murders in the Building (the fifth season wasn’t as big as past seasons, but this is still a good show for them) and King of the Hill (grabbed 20 million and 11 million hours, spending four weeks on the Nielsen charts).
For Hulu, that’s quite a run.
I’ll also mention that Versant renewed its first show, The Rainmaker on USA, which got a datecdote from the company that it was their biggest show since Resident Alien, getting 2.2 million viewers. I am very curious to see how Versant’s shows do in the future.
Finally, Netflix renewed Nobody Wants This for a third season. The second season had solid viewership for a half-hour show.
And Ryan Murphy’s Monster anthology series will be returning for a fourth season on Netflix, with Lizzie Borden as the featured serial killer. This show hasn’t regained the heights of the first season, but it’s a big hit.
Unsurprising Cancellations
As a reminder, making hit shows isn’t enough; what matters is how many shows a streamer/studio needs to make to get those hits.
Since September, Netflix has cancelled…
- …Boots, Norman Lear’s last show, which was well below The Obliterated Line.
- …Starting 5, which I predicted here.
- …three animated shows from 2024: Exploding Kittens, Twilight of the Gods (from Zack Snyder!) and the animated Good Times: Black Again (from last year), which received near universal condemnation. According to Kasey Moore of What’s on Netflix, all three had already started work on season two.
- … The Ultimatum: Queer Love (this show only got 6.4 million hours in its second week).
- …Too Much, Lena Dunham’s latest, which only got 218K viewers according to Samba TV.
Let’s pause on Boots for a bit. As I’ve written for a bit, but newer readers may not know, often people in the wider media don’t know what shows are popular versus what shows are critically acclaimed, leading to headlines like this:
Let me be very clear: Boots was not a hit show, which regular Streaming Ratings readers already knew. It peaked at 13.3 million hours in its second week, nearly 6 million hours below the point where Netflix cancels scripted shows like this, what I call the “Obliterated Line” (which I just revisited here). This especially applies to co-productions like this, since Boots was produced by Sony. Shows from other studios have to perform better than Netflix’s wholly-owned shows or they’ll get cancelled.
On to the other streamers. Hulu cancelled Mid-Century Modern, my co-winner for their biggest flop in the first half of the year, so again (lack of) ratings equal cancellations and vice versa. Also, even though I wrote about it a few months ago, for the sake of being thorough, I’ll re-note that Disney+ is ending its global distribution deal for Doctor Who.
Prime Video cancelled four shows, including the thrillers Butterfly and Countdown. Neither show did horribly—Butterfly’s viewership was low, but not horrible; still, I called it a miss at the time. And Countdown made Samba TV and Luminate charts—but I’m not shocked by either decision. Hotel Costiera didn’t make any charts I track and wasn’t notable enough to merit more than a sentence in the Streaming Ratings Report; still, Fremantle is shopping it around.
Finally, Leverage: Redemption is ending after four seasons; this show has never made a viewership chart.
Shows That Are Ending After Long Runs
In the last edition of the “Renewals and Cancellations” report, I mentioned that The Chi is getting an eighth season. Well, now that eighth season will be its last.
Unpopular Shows that Got Renewed
There’s a contradiction at the heart of this series on renewals and cancellations:
- Viewership provides a great guide to what shows get renewed or cancelled.
- A lot of very unpopular shows that shouldn’t get renewed get renewed.
I think this mostly boils down to five factors:
We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out…
- Five factors that explain why unpopular streaming shows get renewed…
- Three popular shows that are ending! And which actually surprising cancellation got none of the coverage that Boots did…
- The most surprising cancellation over the last two months…
- What’s taking so long with Prime Video’s sequel to a hit film?
- Did Apple and Peacock actually make a big deal?
- And a lot more…
…please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you’d like to read more about why you should subscribe, please read this article about the Streaming Ratings Report, why it matters, why you need it, and why we cover streaming ratings best.
