(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.)
Before we begin, a couple of quick things that stood out to me while I collected this week’s updates. First, this headline:
What was that mysterious “factor”? What thing could have led to Quantum Leap not switching over to Peacock?
It turns out, not very many people watched the show.
Again and again these days, I feel like I wind up writing obvious things, and yes, low viewership isn’t good, and TV shows with low ratings should get cancelled. (Of course, in the streaming era of tech behemoths, that’s not always the case.) I get that someone (an editor, copyeditor, SEO expert, LLM, who knows?) wrote a clickbait-y headline, but it’s also a pretty good symbol of how a lot of entertainment news coverage can (mostly unintentionally) mislead readers.
Next topic, did Making the Cut ever get officially cancelled? If you don’t remember, that was Prime Video’s version of Project Runway, my pick for Prime Video’s biggest flop in the second half of 2022. The third season came and went without ever making a ratings chart…and no one’s heard anything since. Prime Video probably spent a fair amount to pry Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn away from NBCUniversal’s version of the fashion competition reality show, and I’ve heard that Prime Video’s version of the show was phenomenally expensive, so presumably they didn’t want the negative headlines.
It’s almost certainly been cancelled, but Amazon has never confirmed that.
(If you think that Making the Cut was crazy expensive, Mr. Beast’s reality show will probably supplant it as Prime Video’s most expensive reality show.)
All to say…that’s why you need this report! If companies themselves won’t admit to cancelling shows, you need someone like yours truly reviewing all the data and judging success and failure for them. (And I’ll add checking past shows to see if they got cancelled to my ever-growing list of research tasks. As always, please subscribe to make this go faster.)
Okay, on to the article, including streaming’s “long-running shows” problem, some popular genre renewals, some no-brainer cancellations, and more. As always, we start with the “obvious” decisions—popular shows that get renewed, long-running shows that end, and unpopular shows that get cancelled—then move on to the decisions that require a bit more explanation.
Popular Shows That Got Renewed
Let’s start off with two incredibly popular shows that got renewed. FX announced not one, but two additional seasons for Shōgun. Since Shōgun is one of the most popular shows this year and the all-time most popular show on Hulu, this isn’t a surprise.
Ahead of its premiere, HBO renewed House of the Dragon for another season, and since its ratings mostly held into its second season—7.8 million versus 10.1 million for the first season— that’s a good call. (Related, the next season of their other huge hit, The Last of Us, will only run seven episodes.)
Prime Video renewed Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which was a moderate-sized hit for them at the start of the year. (As I wrote, “probably more than good enough for a renewal if the creatives want it”.) The twist? It might return with a new cast. Related, Netflix renewed 3 Body Problem (I keep wanting to write “The 3 Body Problem”, regardless it did great numbers), but only for two more seasons to finish the story. To repeat a point that I can’t get over, even though it had bigger numbers than Baby Reindeer, it wasn’t nearly as buzzy, was it?
In “Was it a hit for them?” territory, Paramount+ renewed Special Ops: Lioness, though it’s now going to be called just “Lioness”. Since this show both bested Halo for Paramount+’s best global debut and it made the Nielsen charts (at 6.1 million hours, but for a weekly show, that’s solid), I like this move. Paramount+ renewed Criminal Minds ahead of its latest season, and we’re waiting on ratings for Criminal Minds: Evolution’s latest season, but it regularly shows up on interest charts and viewership charts, so this makes sense. (Viewers love police procedurals, even if cultural commentators don’t.)
Peacock renewed Ted, even though it was originally supposed to be a limited series. With nearly 20 million hours, this was “big for Peacock”. Related, Apple TV+ renewed Presumed Innocent even though it was also supposed to be a limited series. According to the trades, Apple says that this is their most-watched show of all time.
Netflix renewed two kids shows, including Hot Wheels: Let’s Race and the rare kids series to make the Nielsen charts, Jurassic World: Chaos Theory. Cue commentary on licensing or franchises and the end of culture or something. Especially for Jurassic World: Chaos Theory, this is a good call.
Finally, Prime Video renewed Maxton Hall, a German YA drama. It made the Showlabs charts, so even though it didn’t splash in the US it likely had enough global viewership to grab a season two renewal.
Unsurprising Cancellations
As we (probably?) exit the streaming bubble phase of the streaming wars, the ratings bar to get renewed seems to have risen, even for the mega-tech behemoths and their bottomless piles of cash. (Don’t worry, they renewed some flops too, as we’ll see next.)
Thus Prime Video cancelled Outer Range. As I wrote just last month, “Outer Range, on the other hand, feels like a pricey miss. Look at the Samba TV charts above; the second season—even with a binge release—missed the charts.” They also cancelled two of Freevee’s YA shows, High School (from way back in 2022, based on the memoirs of Tegan and Sarah) and Primo from basketball writer Shea Serrano, which didn’t make the charts. (It’s allegedly getting “shopped around” so we’ll see how that goes.)
Apple TV+ also cancelled a bunch of shows, including The Big Door Prize, which didn’t make the charts this year or last year, Constellation, which didn’t make the charts earlier this year, Still Up, a UK dramedy which also didn’t make the charts last year and doesn’t have any big stars in it, and Make or Break, Apple Studio’s Drive to Survive clone, but with surfing; it’s never made the charts.
(Notice I wrote “never made the charts” a bunch of times? Making a top ten list is the bare minimum for success in streaming nowadays.)
Hulu finally cancelled The D’Amelio Show, which has never made the charts, even interest charts, in three seasons, despite starring one of the biggest TikTok stars in the world. They also cancelled The Other Black Girl, one of their flops from last fall.
Max cancelled Tokyo Vice, as I wrote about a few weeks ago. (It’s allegedly getting “shopped around” so we’ll see how that goes.) The bigger question isn’t why it got cancelled but how it got a second season. I’m guessing they worked out a two season order when they first ordered the show. Then again, Max cancelled The Girls on the Bus after just one season. Scavengers Reign, Max’s trippy animated sci-fi show, is ending after one season, but if it succeeds on Netflix unlike Max, it might get a second season.
Netflix cancelled two animated shows, My Dad the Bounty Hunter, which seemed pricey for a kids show and must have been, since it made the Nielsen charts but still got cancelled, and Arcane, based on the League of Legends characters, which didn’t chart.
Shows That Are Ending After Long Runs: When Will Streaming Have a Long-Running Show?
We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out…
- What new streamer doesn’t have a hit…
- What streamer is still renewing and spending more than anyone else…
- What The Veil is and if anyone is watching it…
- What streamer is making a decision that I love…
- And a lot more…
…please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you’d like to read more about why you should subscribe, please read these posts about the Streaming Ratings Report, why it matters, why you need it, and why we cover streaming ratings best.
