Sometimes, it turns out you can’t predict the future.
Which doesn’t stop us from trying, all the time, whether we realize it or not.
That’s basically the theme of my latest article at Linked-In. It shows how small sample sizes and a lack of data make some efforts at predictions essentially impossible. (I’ve been trying to build my profile over there as well, so consider a follow/connection on Linked-In if you use it as your default social media source.)
Specifically, I looked at film festivals, using Sundance sales from past years as stand-in for all festivals. This is also a great example of how people are predicting things—how likely it is they can sell their film—without realizing it—at best folks predict if the market will be weak or strong, rarely with any numbers to it.
Take a read. Even if you’re not a fan of independent film, you can learn more about…
— A brief history of the rise of prestige/independent films.
— How the streaming wars have boosted prices in independent film.
— A history of Sundance sales looks over the last five years…in numbers.
